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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
22.02.2026 16:15 UTC Match prediction
22.02.2026 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nice - Lorient

France Football
Nice
Nice
3 : 3
Finished
Lorient
Lorient

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nice - Lorient February 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nice.

Line favourite market consensus: Nice. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.25 / X 3.38 / 2 3.17
  • 1X2 market: Nice 42.1% / X 28.0% / Lorient 29.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%
1 42.1%
X 28.0%
2 29.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 49.6%
Under 2.5 50.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.02.2026 16:15 UTC
Match center

Nice - Lorient

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.18 market consensus · line only
X 3.38 market consensus · line only
1 2.25 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.65 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.35 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.17 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.67 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.28 43.9%
X 3.46 28.9%
3.33 30.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.24 44.6% 2.26 44.3% 2.34 42.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.52 28.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9%
3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.08 48.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.13 47.0%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2%
Match center
Nice
L D D W L
15.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:2 LionLion
08.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:0 MonacoMonaco
01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
25.01 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 4:1 NantesNantes
17.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:5 ToulouseToulouse
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Lorient
W L W W W
15.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:0 AngersAngers
07.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
31.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:1 NantesNantes
24.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:0 RennesRennes
16.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:1 MonacoMonaco
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNice - Lorient

Nice
1 matches total
Lorient
Nice: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lorient: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lorient 1:3 (30.11 16:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 30.11 16:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice
1:3
Lorient