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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
18.10.2025 15:00 UTC Match prediction
18.10.2025 15:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nice - Lyon

France Football
Nice
Nice
3 : 2
Finished
Lyon
Lyon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nice - Lyon October 18, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nice.

Line favourite market consensus: Nice. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.43 / X 3.53 / 2 2.88
  • 1X2 market: Nice 39.5% / X 27.2% / Lyon 33.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.2%
1 39.5%
X 27.2%
2 33.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.3%
Over 2.5 54.4%
Under 2.5 45.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 18.10.2025 15:00 UTC
Match center

Nice - Lyon

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.89 market consensus · line only
X 3.54 market consensus · line only
1 2.44 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.59 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.44 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.60 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.88 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.81 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.27 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.46 40.7%
X 3.58 27.9%
2.92 34.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Marathonbet Pinnacle SStats Consensus
2.41 41.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.35 42.6% 2.45 40.8% 2.46 40.7% 2.46 40.7%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.64 27.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.56 28.1% 3.58 27.9% 3.58 27.9%
2.83 35.3% 2.94 34.0% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 2.92 34.3% 2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Marathonbet Pinnacle William Hill
no 2.30 43.5% 2.24 44.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.21 45.3% 2.41 41.5% 2.20 45.5%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.59 62.9% 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Marathonbet Pinnacle SStats Consensus William Hill
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.55 64.5%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.46 68.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.45 69.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4%
Match center
Nice
D D L W L
05.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:2 MonacoMonaco
28.09 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
20.09 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:4 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
13.09 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:0 NantesNantes
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:3 Le HavreLe Havre
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Lyon
L W W L W
05.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:2 ToulouseToulouse
28.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 LilleLille
19.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 AngersAngers
14.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:3 RennesRennes
31.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 MarseilleMarseille
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNice - Lyon

Nice
0 matches total
Lyon
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history