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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
16.08.2025 19:05 UTC Match prediction
16.08.2025 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nice - Toulouse

France Football
Nice
Nice
0 : 1
Finished
Toulouse
Toulouse

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nice - Toulouse August 16, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nice.

Line favourite Fonbet: Nice. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.18 / X 3.35 / 2 3.60
  • 1X2 market: Nice 44.3% / X 28.8% / Toulouse 26.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.5%
1 44.3%
X 28.8%
2 26.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 47.4%
Under 2.5 52.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.08.2025 19:05 UTC
Match center

Nice - Toulouse

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.60 Fonbet · line only
X 3.35 Fonbet · line only
1 2.18 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 1.68 Fonbet · line only
12 1.33 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.37 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 3.54 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.05 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.77 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.16 46.3%
X 3.35 29.9%
3.74 26.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.12 47.2% 2.12 47.2% 2.18 45.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.45 29.0% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8%
3.55 28.2% 3.60 27.8% 3.73 26.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin
no 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 1.70 58.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
Match center
Nice
W L W W W
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 6:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:2 RennesRennes
02.05 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:0 Reims
25.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 3:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
20.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:1 AngersAngers
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Toulouse
W D W D L
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 3:2 Saint EtienneSaint Etienne
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:1 LensLens
03.05 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:1 RennesRennes
27.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:0 NantesNantes
20.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 Reims
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNice - Toulouse

Nice
0 matches total
Toulouse
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history