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Ligue 1 France

03.05.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

03.05.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Paris FC - Stade Brestois 29

France Football

Stadium Stade Jean Bouin

Referee M. Bollengier

Capacity 20 000

Paris FC

4 : 0

Finished

Stade Brestois 29

Paris FC face Stade Brestois 29 on May 3, 2026 in the Ligue 1, France.

Recent form (W-D-L): Paris FC 3-1-1, Stade Brestois 29 0-2-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Paris FC the favourite at about 47%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 44% to win — broadly in line with the market. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Paris FC — 44%

1 · Paris FC44.3%

X · draw26.4%

2 · Stade Brestois 2929.4%

Model estimate: win Paris FC 44.3%, draw 26.4%, win Stade Brestois 29 29.4%. Model favourite — Paris FC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris FC - Stade Brestois 29 May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris FC.

Strongest: Paris FC - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.00 / X 3.60 / 2 3.60
1X2 market: Paris FC 47.3% / X 26.3% / Stade Brestois 29 26.3%
Glicko: Paris FC 44.3% / X 26.4% / Stade Brestois 29 29.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 29.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4% 13 books · best price +3.0%

1 47.3%

X 26.4%

2 26.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 54.4%

Under 2.5 45.6%

Odds source: consensus of 13 books (10Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/5

Confidence 46.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 03.05.2026 15:15 UTC

Market 1 47.4% @ 2.00 / X 26.3% @ 3.60 / 2 26.3% @ 3.60

Stadium Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Referee M. Bollengier

Capacity 20,000

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Paris FC 44%

💹 Market Paris FC 4734%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Paris FC - Stade Brestois 29

Paris FC: win 1.91 Paris FC: draw 3.30 Stade Brestois 29 win: 3.50 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy Total goals Paris FC Over 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy Total goals Paris FC Under 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy Total goals St…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:0

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 80

min Event Player Team

13' 13' Normal Goal | R. Matondo R. Matondo Paris FC

20' 20' Normal Goal | W. Geubbels W. Geubbels Paris FC

24' 24' Yellow Card | H. Traore H. Traore Paris FC

26' 26' Yellow Card | B. Chardonnet B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29

35' 35' Yellow Card | M. Mbow M. Mbow Paris FC

60' 60' Substitution 1 | R. Labeau Lascary | assist/sub out: J. Dina Ebimbe R. Labeau Lascary Stade Brestois 29

60' 60' Substitution 2 | L. Tousart | assist/sub out: H. Makalou L. Tousart Stade Brestois 29

65' 65' Substitution 1 | I. Kebbal | assist/sub out: M. Lopez I. Kebbal Paris FC

Metric Paris FC Stade Brestois 29 SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.86 0.79 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 3 final

Shots off target 5 6 final

Shots on target 8 1 final

Udary vsego 17 10 final

Fouls soversheno 10 8 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final

Offsides 2 2 final

Paris FC #5 B. Chardonnet, #8 H. Magnetti, #10 R. Del Castillo, #12 L. Zogbe, #13 J. Chotard, #14 R. Labeau Lascary, #19 L. Ajorque, #24 L. Tousart, #30 G. Coudert, #71 R. Le Guen, #77 K. Lala

Stade Brestois 29 #5 M. Mbow, #9 W. Geubbels, #10 I. Kebbal, #14 H. Traore, #18 M. Munetsi, #19 N. Sangui, #23 R. Matondo, #27 Moses Simon, #35 K. Trapp, #42 D. Coppola, #93 J. Ikone

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Camara Stade Brestois 29 Seyvy 0

A. Gory Stade Brestois 29 Seyvy 0

B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 football.player.assists 0

B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 football.player.minutes_played 90

C. Immobile Stade Brestois 29 Dribling popytki 1

C. Immobile Stade Brestois 29 Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

C. Immobile Stade Brestois 29 Seyvy 0

C. Immobile Stade Brestois 29 Klyuchevye pasy 4

C. Immobile Stade Brestois 29 Reyting (staryy) 6.7

C. Immobile Stade Brestois 29 Otbory vsego 3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Paris FC 48.2% 44.3% market and model agree

Draw 26.4% 26.4% draw risk

Stade Brestois 29 25.3% 29.4%

xG - 1.43 : 1.11

Total 2.5 Over 29.2% - Under 70.8%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 44.3% / 26.4% / 29.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,517 / 1,508 Paris FC / Stade Brestois 29

RD 75 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.60 market consensus · no value · model 29.4%

X 3.60 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.00 market consensus · no value · model 44.3%

Double chance

X2 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 55.8%

12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 73.6%

1X 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.41 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.44 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.47 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 29.2%

Under 2.5 2.09 market consensus · value +48.0% · model 70.8%

Both teams to score

No 2.21 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.02 49.5%	1.95 51.3%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.79 26.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%
	3.55 28.2%	3.79 26.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.65 27.4%	3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.20 45.5%	2.18 45.9%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.16 46.3%	2.12 47.2%
yes	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.77 56.5%	1.86 53.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.73 57.8%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.33 75.2%
Over 2.25	—	1.61 62.1%
Over 2.5	1.73 57.8%	—
Over 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—
Over 4.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.95 25.3%	—
Under 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—
Under 4.5	1.17 85.5%	—

Match center

Paris FC

Founded 1969

Stade Brestois 29

Founded 1950

Match center

Paris FC

JL J. Lopez Back Injury

PH P. Hamel Calf Injury

Stade Brestois 29

MB M. Balde Groin Injury

BL B. Locko Muscle Injury

Paris FC Founded: 1969

Stade Brestois 29 Founded: 1950

Match center

Paris FC

L W W D W

26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 0:1 Lille

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 3:1 Metz

10.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 4:1 Monaco

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 1:1 Lorient

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 3:2 Le Havre

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Stade Brestois 29

D D L L L

24.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 3:3 Lens

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 1:1 Nantes

04.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 3:4 Rennes

21.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 0:3 Auxerre

14.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 0:2 Monaco

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.6 Conceded

2 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis FC - Stade Brestois 29

Paris FC

1 matches total

Stade Brestois 29

Paris FC: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Stade Brestois 29: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Paris FC 2:1 (14.09 15:15 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 14.09 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

14.09 15:15 UTC

Ligue 1

Paris FC

2:1

Stade Brestois 29

Match center

Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.