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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
07.03.2026 20:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Toulouse - Marseille

France Football
Toulouse
Toulouse
0 : 1
Finished
Marseille
Marseille

Toulouse take on Marseille on March 7, 2026 in the Ligue 1, France.

Recent form (W-D-L): Toulouse 0-2-3, Marseille 1-2-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Marseille the favourite at about 43%. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Marseille March 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.17 / X 3.47 / 2 2.18
  • 1X2 market: Toulouse 29.7% / X 27.1% / Marseille 43.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 29.7%
X 27.1%
2 43.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 53.6%
Under 2.5 46.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 07.03.2026 20:05 UTC
Market 1 29.7% @ 3.17 / X 27.1% @ 3.47 / 2 43.2% @ 2.18
Match center

Toulouse - Marseille

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.18 market consensus · line only
X 3.48 market consensus · line only
1 3.18 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.35 market consensus · line only
12 1.29 market consensus · line only
1X 1.68 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.21 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.25 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.34 29.9%
X 3.53 28.3%
2.25 44.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.14 31.9% 3.10 32.3% 2.90 34.5% 3.30 30.3%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.65 27.4% 3.68 27.2% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%
2.18 45.9% 2.18 45.9% 2.27 44.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.30 43.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.34 42.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.17 46.1% 2.36 42.4%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.64 61.0% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.64 61.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9%
Match center
Toulouse
L D L L D
28.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 RennesRennes
21.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
15.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:2 Le HavreLe Havre
08.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 AngersAngers
01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
2 Points
Marseille
W L D L D
01.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:2 LionLion
20.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
14.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
08.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:5 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
31.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:2 Paris FCParis FC
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Marseille

Toulouse
2 matches total
Marseille
Toulouse: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Marseille: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Marseille 2:3 (06.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 06.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (29.11 20:05 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 4

Match history

29.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse
2:2
Marseille
06.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse
2:3
Marseille