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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
17.01.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
17.01.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Toulouse - Nice

France Football
Toulouse
Toulouse
5 : 1
Finished
Nice
Nice

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Nice January 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.01 / X 3.47 / 2 3.71
  • 1X2 market: Toulouse 47.1% / X 27.4% / Nice 25.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 47.1%
X 27.3%
2 25.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 49.7%
Under 2.5 50.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 17.01.2026 18:00 UTC
Match center

Toulouse - Nice

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.71 market consensus · line only
X 3.47 market consensus · line only
1 2.02 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.82 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.28 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.41 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.63 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.50 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.03 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.74 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.06 48.5%
X 3.55 28.2%
3.83 26.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.02 49.5% 2.03 49.3% 2.07 48.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.55 28.2% 3.66 27.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0%
3.65 27.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.86 25.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0% 3.65 27.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 1.98 50.5% 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.31 76.3%
Match center
Toulouse
L W W D L
02.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:3 LensLens
13.12 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 3:0 Paris FCParis FC
06.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
29.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:2 MarseilleMarseille
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 AngersAngers
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Nice
D L L L L
03.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
14.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:2 LensLens
07.12 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:1 AngersAngers
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:3 LorientLorient
21.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:5 MarseilleMarseille
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.4 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Nice

Toulouse
1 matches total
Nice
Toulouse: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nice: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Toulouse 1:0 (16.08 19:05 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 16.08 19:05 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

16.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse
1:0
Nice