Match center
Start
04.08.2026 01:06 UTC
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✓ Prematch ready
Prematch data
✓Line
✓Form
–H2H
✓Prediction
04.08.2026 01:06 UTC
Finished
Mexico. Women. Liga MX
Santos Laguna (w) - America (w)
0
:
3
Finished
Santos Laguna (w) go head-to-head with America (w) on August 4, 2026 in the Mexico. Women. Liga MX.
Recent form (W-D-L): Santos Laguna (w) 1-1-3, America (w) 3-1-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 7% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 America (w) — 83%
Pure model vs market (2 · America (w)): model 33% · market 87% Δ −54 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Santos Laguna (w) 6.8%, draw 9.8%, win America (w) 83.4%. Model favourite — America (w).
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Santos Laguna (w) - America (w) August 4, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- Glicko: Santos Laguna (w) 6.8% / X 9.8% / America (w) 83.4%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.9%
4 books
1
4.4%
X
8.7%
2 ✓ Pick
86.9%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Liga MX Femenil
Best price
across 12 books
1
25.00
Marathonbet
X
12.49
Pinnacle
2
1.09
Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Santos Laguna (w)
W-D-L 2-2-6
Scored 1.10
Conceded 1.60
xG 1.18
xGA 2.05
America (w)
W-D-L 8-1-1
Scored 2.80
Conceded 1.10
xG 2.45
xGA 0.99
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Santos Laguna (w)
Rating 1309
xG 0.55
Win 6%
America (w)
Rating 1785
xG 2.59
Win 81%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Santos Laguna (w)
1
:
4
America (w)
125.00
X11.20
21.01
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Santos Laguna (w) - America (w)
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:3
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 83.4% fact: away
hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.042 / LogLoss 0.182
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 83.4% fact: away
hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.042 / LogLoss 0.182
Glicko-2: public filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 83.4% fact: away
hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.042 / LogLoss 0.182
Glicko-2: precision filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 83.4% fact: away
hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.042 / LogLoss 0.182
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Santos Laguna (w)
4.4%
6.8%
Draw
9.0%
9.8%
draw risk
America (w)
86.6%
83.4%
market and model agree
xG
-
0.55 : 2.59
1X2: 3 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
6.8% / 9.8% / 83.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,500 / 1,500
Santos Laguna (w) / America (w)
RD
350 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.05
Fonbet · no value · model 83.4%
X
9.30
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 90.2%
1X
7.30
Fonbet · no value · model 16.6%
X2
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 93.2%
Handicap
2 0
1.02
Fonbet · line only
1 0
10.00
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.40
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.75
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.18
Fonbet · line only
Yes
4.10
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.18 84.8% | 1.60 62.5% |
| yes | 4.10 24.4% | 2.20 45.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | — | 1.04 96.2% | 1.02 98.0% |
| 1x | 6.30 15.9% | 7.80 12.8% | 7.30 13.7% |
| x2 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 14.80 6.8% | |
| X | 3.66 27.3% |
| 1.30 76.9% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.77 56.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.94 51.6% |
Match center
Santos Laguna (w)
W
D
L
L
L
Santos Laguna (w)
Santos Laguna (w) 3:0 Queretaro (w)
Santos Laguna (w)
Atlas (w) 1:1 Santos Laguna (w)
Santos Laguna (w)
Santos Laguna (w) 1:2 Pachuca (w)
Santos Laguna (w)
Santos Laguna (w) 1:2 Atletico San Luis (w)
Santos Laguna (w)
Juarez (w) 2:0 Santos Laguna (w)
1
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.4
Conceded
4
Points
America (w)
D
W
W
W
L
America (w) 1:1 Tigres Monterrey (w)
America (w)
America (w) 5:3 Washington Spirit (w)
America (w)
America (w) 4:1 Gotham (w)
America (w)
America (w) 3:0 Monterrey (w)
America (w)
Monterrey (w) 1:0 America (w)
America (w)
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2.6
Scored
1.2
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySantos Laguna (w) - America (w)
Santos Laguna (w)
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Santos Laguna (w) - America (w) breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form