AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Kherakles. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
04.09.2026 18:00 UTC
Netherlands: First Division
Kherakles host De Graafschap in football, in Netherlands: First Division, on 4 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Kherakles: roughly 65% to win. Sportsbook prices (2 books) put that result at roughly 66%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 19%.
Recent form reads: Kherakles have 3 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost of their last 3; De Graafschap have 0 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost of 1. Kherakles arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Kherakles 1681, De Graafschap 1500, a gap of 181 points.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Kherakles (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 181 Glicko rating points, the model's 65% for Kherakles. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Kherakles — 65%
Model estimate: win Kherakles 65.4%, draw 19.0%, win De Graafschap 15.7%. Model favourite — Kherakles.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Double chance — Kherakles or draw 1.10
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Baltbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.58 38.8% |
| yes | 1.46 68.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% |
| 1x | 1.10 90.9% |
| x2 | 2.75 36.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.86 53.8% | |
| X | 2.74 36.5% |
| 5.60 17.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.89 52.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
Kherakles
Yong Utrekht
Den Boskh
Venlo
De Graafschap
Yong AZ Alkmar
Full head-to-head history: Kherakles - De Graafschap
The Kherakles - De Graafschap breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Kherakles. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Kherakles vs De Graafschap from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
September 4, 2026.
