AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Waalwijk. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
04.09.2026 18:00 UTC
Netherlands: First Division
Waalwijk take on Breda in football, in Netherlands: First Division, on 4 September 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Waalwijk as the favourite at around 49%. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 33%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 20%.
Latest form: Waalwijk 0 won, 4 drawn and 1 lost; Breda 1 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1362 for Waalwijk against 1432 for Breda - a gap of 70 points.
Our model is notably more confident in the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 16-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 70 Glicko rating points, the model's 49% for Waalwijk. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Waalwijk — 49%
Model estimate: win Waalwijk 48.6%, draw 19.9%, win Breda 31.5%. Model favourite — Waalwijk.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: Leon line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.80 35.7% |
| yes | 1.40 71.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.40 29.4% | |
| X | 2.35 42.6% |
| 2.77 36.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.13 47.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.64 61.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.08 48.1% | |
| 1.67 59.9% |
Waalwijk
Yong PSV
Khelmond
Dordrekht
Vitess
Breda
Roda
Venlo
Oss
Full head-to-head history: Waalwijk - Breda
The Waalwijk - Breda breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Breda. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Waalwijk vs Breda from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
September 4, 2026.
