Match center
Start
27.07.2026 15:00 UTC
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27.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished
Norway: Tretiy Division - Group 6 Standings
Sarpsborg 2 - Ern
S
Sarpsborg 2
2
:
3
Finished
E
Ern
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Ern — 44%
Pure model vs market (2 · Ern): model 27% · market 45% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Sarpsborg 2 33.1%, draw 23.1%, win Ern 43.8%. Model favourite — Ern.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Ern (odds1.90)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
✓ outcome correct
- • Model backs Ern: probability 50% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
- • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Sarpsborg 2 - Ern July 27, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ern.
Strongest: Ern - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.81 / X 3.84 / 2 2.02
- 1X2 market: Sarpsborg 2 32.0% / X 23.5% / Ern 44.6%
- Glicko: Sarpsborg 2 33.1% / X 23.1% / Ern 43.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 11.1%
1
32.0%
X
23.4%
2
44.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
3. Division - Girone 6League table
Sarpsborg 2
LLWDL
Ern
WWLLD
Best price
across 12 books
1
2.90
Dafabet
X
4.00
Bet365
2
2.47
Marathonbet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Sarpsborg 2
W-D-L 3-2-5
Scored 1.60
Conceded 2.50
xG 1.96
xGA 2.07
Ern
W-D-L 5-3-2
Scored 2.00
Conceded 1.51
xG 2.31
xGA 1.45
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Sarpsborg 2
Rating 1416
xG 1.50
Win 32%
Ern
Rating 1587
xG 1.83
Win 45%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Sarpsborg 2
2
:
2
Ern
12.86
X3.90
22.02
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Ern 44%
💹 Market
Ern 4457%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Sarpsborg 2 - Ern
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:3
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 43.8% fact: away
hit / ROI 108.0% / Brier 0.479 / LogLoss 0.826
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 43.8% fact: away
hit / ROI 108.0% / Brier 0.479 / LogLoss 0.826
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Sarpsborg 2
32.0%
33.1%
Draw
23.2%
23.1%
draw risk
Ern
44.9%
43.8%
market and model agree
1X2: 15 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
33.1% / 23.1% / 43.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,428 / 1,290
Sarpsborg 2 / Ern
RD
294 / 282
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
839-2,016 / 726-1,853
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.10
Fonbet · no value · model 43.8%
X
6.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.83
market consensus · no value · model 33.1%
Double chance
12
1.08
Fonbet · no value · model 76.9%
1X
5.40
Fonbet · weak value +203.5% · model 56.2%
X2
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 66.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.95
market consensus · line only
2 0
1.54
market consensus · line only
1 +0.5
1.80
market consensus · line only
1 0
2.29
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.28
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
3.25
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
3.11
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.33
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 36.4% | 2.86 35.0% | 2.88 34.7% | 2.82 35.5% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.80 35.7% | |
| X | 3.90 25.6% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.10 24.4% | 3.75 26.7% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.00 25.0% |
| 2.00 50.0% | 2.02 49.5% | 1.90 52.6% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 3.11 32.2% |
| yes | 1.33 75.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.11 90.1% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.08 92.6% |
| 1x | 1.65 60.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 5.40 18.5% |
| x2 | 1.24 80.7% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.02 98.0% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 0_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_3 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_4 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 0_5 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 0_6 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 1_1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 1_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 1_3 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 1_4 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 1_5 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 1_6 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 2_0 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 2_1 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 2_2 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 2_3 | 12.00 8.3% |
Match center
Sarpsborg 2
D
Sarpsborg 2
3:3
Brumunddal
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
3.0
Scored
3.0
Conceded
1
Points
Ern
L
Ern
0:3
Elverum
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
3.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySarpsborg 2 - Ern
Sarpsborg 2
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form