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Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
27.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings

Benjamin Aceval - Guarenya

Football
B
Benjamin Aceval
1 : 1
Finished
Guarenya
Guarenya
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Benjamin Aceval — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · Benjamin Aceval): model 57% · market 9% Δ +48 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Benjamin Aceval ✓ Pick56.6%
X · draw20.0%
2 · Guarenya23.4%

Model estimate: win Benjamin Aceval 56.6%, draw 20.0%, win Guarenya 23.4%. Model favourite — Benjamin Aceval.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Benjamin Aceval (odds1.65) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Benjamin Aceval: probability 50% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.65)
  • • no edge over the line (-11 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Benjamin Aceval - Guarenya July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 10.00 / X 1.14 / 2 8.50
  • Glicko: Benjamin Aceval 56.6% / X 20.0% / Guarenya 23.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 ✓ Pick 9.1%
X 80.1%
2 10.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Benjamin Aceval 4 : 0 Guarenya
11.82
X3.32
23.98

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
21 predictions Choose an outcome
1 75% 3
X 25% 1
2 0% 0
Double chance 1X 1.18 (1)
Total TB 2.5 2.02 (3) - TM 1 7.40 (1) - TM 2.5 1.69 (1)
total_t1_under total_t1_over:1_5 2.01 (3) - total_t2_over:1_5 3.64 (2)
Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.85 (3)
Match center
Start 27.07.2026 16:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Benjamin Aceval 75%
📐 Math model Benjamin Aceval 57%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Benjamin Aceval - Guarenya

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 4 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 56.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.015 / LogLoss 1.610
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 56.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.015 / LogLoss 1.610
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Benjamin Aceval 48.6% 56.6% market and model agree
Draw 27.3% 20.0% draw risk
Guarenya 24.1% 23.4%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 56.6% / 20.0% / 23.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,682 / 1,414 Benjamin Aceval / Guarenya
RD 195 / 183 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,292-2,072 / 1,048-1,781 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 23.4%
X 1.14 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 10.00 Fonbet · weak value +465.6% · model 56.6%
Double chance
12 4.60 Fonbet · weak value +268.1% · model 80.0%
1X 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 76.6%
X2 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 43.4%
Handicap
2 +1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.63 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.60 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.15 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 9.50 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.23 81.3% 1.83 54.6%
yes 3.60 27.8% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 4.60 21.7%
1x 1.05 95.2%
x2 1.04 96.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.43 41.2%
X 2.03 49.3%
4.84 20.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.96 51.0%
Under 1 1.75 57.1%
Match center
Benjamin Aceval
W D D W W
18.07 16:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Benjamin Aceval 2:0 Resistentsiya
12.07 16:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Benjamin Aceval 1:1 Sol de Amerika
05.07 20:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Benjamin Aceval 1:1 Deportivo KapiataDeportivo Kapiata
30.06 19:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Benjamin Aceval 2:1 Independente FBKIndependente FBK
06.06 11:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Benjamin Aceval 3:2 TakuariTakuari
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
11 Points
Guarenya
L L W L W
18.07 16:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Guarenya 1:2 Deportivo Karapega
12.07 11:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Guarenya 0:1 12 de Junio
05.07 17:30 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Guarenya 2:1 Encarnacion FC
01.07 11:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Guarenya 0:2 Deportivo Santani
01.06 17:00 UTC Paraguay: Division Intermedia Standings
Guarenya 2:1 3 de Noviembre3 de Noviembre
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBenjamin Aceval - Guarenya

Benjamin Aceval
0 matches total
Guarenya
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history