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Paraguay. Premier League
Paraguay. Premier League
30.07.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Paraguay. Premier League

Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guarani Asuncion

Football
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo
2 : 1
Finished
Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Guarani Asuncion — 42%

Pure model vs market (2 · Guarani Asuncion): model 36% · market 43% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sportivo San Lorenzo26.8%
X · draw31.5%
2 · Guarani Asuncion41.7%

Model estimate: win Sportivo San Lorenzo 26.8%, draw 31.5%, win Guarani Asuncion 41.7%. Model favourite — Guarani Asuncion.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sportivo San Lorenzo (odds3.57) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs San-Lorenso: probability 50% vs 28% on the line (odds 3.57)
  • • edge over the line +22 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guarani Asuncion July 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Guarani Asuncion.

Line favourite market consensus: Guarani Asuncion. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.45 / X 3.03 / 2 2.16
  • Glicko: Sportivo San Lorenzo 26.8% / X 31.5% / Guarani Asuncion 41.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 26.8%
X 30.5%
2 42.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Sportivo San Lorenzo 1 : 1 Guarani Asuncion
13.47
X3.09
22.18

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guarani Asuncion

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 41.7% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.809 / LogLoss 1.318
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 41.7% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.809 / LogLoss 1.318
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sportivo San Lorenzo 25.8% 26.8%
Draw 32.1% 31.5% draw risk
Guarani Asuncion 42.1% 41.7% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 26.8% / 31.5% / 41.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,481 / 1,529 Sportivo San Lorenzo / Guarani Asuncion
RD 291 / 134 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 898-2,063 / 1,261-1,797 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 41.7%
X 3.01 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.37 market consensus · no value · model 26.8%
Double chance
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 68.5%
1X 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 58.3%
X2 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 73.2%
Handicap
2 0 1.54 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.35 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.44 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.68 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.07 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.68 59.5%
yes 2.07 48.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.31 76.3% 1.34 74.6%
1x 1.59 62.9% 1.62 61.7%
x2 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.28 23.4%
X 1.89 52.9%
2.87 34.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.54 64.9%
Over 1 2.32 43.1%
Under 0.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 1 1.54 64.9%
Match center
Sportivo San Lorenzo
W
25.07 17:00 UTC Paraguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Sportivo San Lorenzo 1:0 Rekoleta
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Guarani Asuncion
L
26.07 19:30 UTC Paraguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Guarani Asuncion 1:2 Sportivo Lukeno
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points