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Poland: First Division Standings
Poland: First Division Standings
31.07.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Poland: First Division Standings

Lechia Gdansk - Warta Poznan

Football
L
Lechia Gdansk
0 : 0
Finished
W
Warta Poznan
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Warta Poznan — 38%

Pure model vs market (2 · Warta Poznan): model 41% · market 66% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Lechia Gdansk36.7%
X · draw24.9%
2 · Warta Poznan38.4%

Model estimate: win Lechia Gdansk 36.7%, draw 24.9%, win Warta Poznan 38.4%. Model favourite — Warta Poznan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Warta Poznan (odds2.84) Score 0:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Varta: probability 50% vs 35% on the line (odds 2.84)
  • • edge over the line +15 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lechia Gdansk - Warta Poznan July 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Warta Poznan.

Line favourite Fonbet: Warta Poznan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.55 / X 9.50 / 2 1.04
  • Glicko: Lechia Gdansk 36.7% / X 24.9% / Warta Poznan 38.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 45.9%
1 26.9%
X 7.2%
2 65.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

I Liga
League table
Lechia Gdansk
#180 ptsGP 20-0-20:6
ARRAY
Warta Poznan
#43 ptsGP 21-0-16:4
ARRAY
Best price across 12 books
1 2.62 SBO
X 3.83 Pinnacle
2 2.55 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Lechia Gdansk
W-D-L 6-0-4 Scored 1.45 Conceded 1.90 xG 1.36 xGA 1.28
Warta Poznan
W-D-L 1-0-9 Scored 0.96 Conceded 2.14 xG 0.95 xGA 1.56

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Lechia Gdansk
Rating 1519 xG 1.30 Win 34%
Warta Poznan
Rating 1321 xG 1.43 Win 40%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Lechia Gdansk 1 : 2 Warta Poznan
12.41
X3.56
22.41

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Market 1 26.9% @ 2.55 / X 7.2% @ 9.50 / 2 65.9% @ 1.04
Match center

Lechia Gdansk - Warta Poznan

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 38.4% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.846 / LogLoss 1.390
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 38.4% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.846 / LogLoss 1.390
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lechia Gdansk 36.8% 36.7%
Draw 25.1% 24.9% draw risk
Warta Poznan 38.2% 38.4% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.7% / 24.9% / 38.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,247 / 1,400 Lechia Gdansk / Warta Poznan
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 665-1,829 / 818-1,983 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 38.4%
X 9.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.53 market consensus · no value · model 36.7%
Double chance
12 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 75.1%
1X 6.90 Fonbet · weak value +325.3% · model 61.6%
X2 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 63.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.47 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.06 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.10 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 5.40 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Yes 7.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.05 95.2% 2.30 43.5%
yes 7.00 14.3% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.22 82.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.02 98.0%
1x 1.47 68.0% 1.55 64.5% 6.90 14.5%
x2 1.45 69.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.08 92.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.00 33.3%
X 2.28 43.9%
3.05 32.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.36 42.4%
Under 1.5 1.48 67.6%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-1-1, avg 1.0 gls
2023-03-19 · Lekhiya Gdansk 0:2 Varta
2022-09-03 · Lekhiya Gdansk 0:0 Varta
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.55 (Betcity) · X 3.9 (Betcity) · 2 2.85 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.25 3.35 2.85
Winline 2.28 3.25 2.85
Fonbet 2.25 3.35 2.85
Betcity 2.55 3.9 2.3
Liga Stavok 2.31 3.25 2.85
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Lechia Gdansk
L L L L L
2026-07-25 1. Liga 26/27
Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0:3 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
2026-05-23 Ekstraklasa 25/26
Lechia Gdansk B-B Termalica 3:2 Lechia Gdansk
2026-05-17 Ekstraklasa 25/26
Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1:2 Legia Warsaw
2026-05-09 Ekstraklasa 25/26
Lechia Gdansk Widzew Lodz 3:1 Lechia Gdansk
2026-05-04 Ekstraklasa 25/26
Lechia Gdansk Radomiak Radom 3:1 Lechia Gdansk
0 Wins
0 Draws
5 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.8 Conceded
0 Points
Warta Poznan
L L L D D
2026-07-24 1. Liga 26/27
Polonia Bytom 4:3 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan
2026-07-11 Club Friendly Games 2026
Chrobry Glogow 3:1 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan
2026-07-03 Club Friendly Games 2026
Motor Lublin 4:1 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan
2026-05-30 II Liga 25/26
Warta Poznan 2:2 Resovia Rzeszow Warta Poznan
2026-05-23 II Liga 25/26
Podhale Nowy Targ 2:2 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.8 Scored
3.0 Conceded
2 Points