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Premier League England

30.12.2025 20:15 UTC Match prediction

30.12.2025 20:15 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Arsenal - Aston Villa

England Football

Arsenal

4 : 1

Finished

Aston Villa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Aston Villa December 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.39 / X 5.06 / 2 7.89
1X2 market: Arsenal 68.9% / X 18.9% / Aston Villa 12.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 55.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%

1 68.9%

X 18.9%

2 12.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.0%

Over 2.5 55.3%

Under 2.5 44.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 30.12.2025 20:15 UTC

Match center

Arsenal - Aston Villa

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.92 market consensus · line only

X 5.09 market consensus · line only

1 1.39 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 3.04 market consensus · line only

12 1.18 market consensus · line only

1X 1.09 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.97 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.32 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.57 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.39 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.78 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.99 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.38 72.5%
X	5.45 18.4%
	8.25 12.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.44 69.4%	1.39 71.9%	1.42 70.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%
X	4.70 21.3%	5.10 19.6%	5.13 19.5%	5.25 19.1%	5.20 19.2%	5.00 20.0%
	6.50 15.4%	8.00 12.5%	8.40 11.9%	7.50 13.3%	9.00 11.1%	8.00 12.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	Superbet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.75 57.1%
yes	1.95 51.3%	2.02 49.5%	1.93 51.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.15 46.5%	1.93 51.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
draw_away	2.75 36.4%	3.09 32.4%	3.00 33.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.22 31.1%
home_away	1.15 87.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.19 84.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.10 90.9%	1.09 91.7%	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%	1.09 91.7%	1.11 90.1%

Match center

Arsenal

W W W L W

27.12 15:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:1 Brighton

20.12 20:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:0 Everton

13.12 20:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:1 Wolves

06.12 12:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:2 Aston Villa

03.12 19:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:0 Brentford

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Aston Villa

W W W W W

27.12 17:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:1 Chelsea

21.12 16:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:1 Manchester United

14.12 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 3:2 West Ham

06.12 12:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:1 Arsenal

03.12 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 4:3 Brighton

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Aston Villa

Arsenal

1 matches total

Aston Villa

Arsenal: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Aston Villa: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 1:2 (06.12 12:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 06.12 12:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

06.12 12:30 UTC

Premier League

Arsenal

1:2

Aston Villa