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Premier League
Premier League England
23.08.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
23.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Arsenal - Leeds

England Football
Arsenal
Arsenal
5 : 0
Finished
Leeds
Leeds

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Leeds August 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.34 / X 5.30 / 2 8.86
  • 1X2 market: Arsenal 71.2% / X 18.0% / Leeds 10.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 71.2%
X 18.0%
2 10.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 57.4%
Under 2.5 42.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Arsenal - Leeds

Form 5/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.90 market consensus · line only
X 5.33 market consensus · line only
1 1.34 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.26 market consensus · line only
12 1.16 market consensus · line only
1X 1.08 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.35 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.52 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.24 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.97 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.34 74.6%
X 5.60 17.9%
9.50 10.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.35 74.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.39 71.9%
X 5.10 19.6% 5.50 18.2% 5.37 18.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.10 19.6%
8.40 11.9% 8.80 11.4% 8.70 11.5% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 9.25 10.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.94 51.6% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.94 51.6% 2.02 49.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 3.10 32.3% 3.26 30.7% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3%
home_away 1.12 89.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7% 1.08 92.6%
Match center
Arsenal
W W W D L
17.08 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:0 Manchester UnitedManchester United
25.05 15:00 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:1 SouthamptonSouthampton
18.05 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:0 NyukaslNyukasl
11.05 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:2 LiverpulLiverpul
03.05 16:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:2 BournemouthBournemouth
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Leeds
W
18.08 19:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 1:0 EvertonEverton
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Leeds

Arsenal
0 matches total
Leeds
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history