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Premier League England

11.02.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

11.02.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Brighton

England Football

Aston Villa

1 : 0

Finished

Brighton

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Brighton February 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.99 / X 3.70 / 2 3.63
1X2 market: Aston Villa 47.9% / X 25.8% / Brighton 26.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 58.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 47.9%

X 25.8%

2 26.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 58.3%

Under 2.5 41.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 11.02.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

Aston Villa - Brighton

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.63 market consensus · line only

X 3.71 market consensus · line only

1 1.99 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.83 market consensus · line only

12 1.28 market consensus · line only

1X 1.29 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.46 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.48 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.93 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.64 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.29 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.39 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.55 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.01 49.8%
X	3.80 26.3%
	3.73 26.8%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.98 50.5%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.02 49.5%
X	3.65 27.4%	3.80 26.3%	3.79 26.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.80 26.3%	3.80 26.3%
	3.40 29.4%	3.55 28.2%	3.79 26.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.45 40.8%	2.50 40.0%	2.42 41.3%	2.30 43.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.42 41.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.39 41.8%	2.51 39.8%
yes	1.50 66.7%	1.54 64.9%	1.51 66.2%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.53 65.4%	1.51 66.2%	1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.80 55.6%	1.86 53.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.31 76.3%	1.22 82.0%

Match center

Aston Villa

D L W L D

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Bournemouth

01.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Brentford

25.01 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:0 Nyukasl

18.01 16:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Everton

07.01 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:0 Kristal Pelas

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.6 Conceded

5 Points

Brighton

L D L D D

08.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Kristal Pelas

31.01 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:1 Everton

24.01 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:2 Fulham

19.01 20:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:1 Bournemouth

07.01 19:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:1 Manchester City

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Brighton

Aston Villa

2 matches total

Brighton

Aston Villa: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Brighton: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 3:0 (02.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 7 goals (4:3, 03.12 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

7 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 7

Match history

03.12 19:30 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

4:3

Brighton

02.04 18:45 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

3:0

Brighton