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Premier League England

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Chelsea

England Football

Aston Villa

1 : 4

Finished

Chelsea

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Chelsea March 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Line favourite market consensus: Chelsea. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.75 / X 3.44 / 2 2.52
1X2 market: Aston Villa 34.6% / X 27.6% / Chelsea 37.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 54.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 34.6%

X 27.7%

2 37.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.0%

Over 2.5 54.0%

Under 2.5 46.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

Aston Villa - Chelsea

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.52 market consensus · line only

X 3.45 market consensus · line only

1 2.75 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.45 market consensus · line only

12 1.30 market consensus · line only

1X 1.53 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.18 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.43 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.95 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.09 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.28 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.59 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.83 35.3%
X	3.55 28.2%
	2.55 39.2%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.70 37.0%	2.75 36.4%	2.85 35.1%	2.63 38.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.75 36.4%
X	3.45 29.0%	3.60 27.8%	3.54 28.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.35 29.9%
	2.44 41.0%	2.49 40.2%	2.61 38.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.57 38.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.30 43.5%	2.33 42.9%	2.28 43.9%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.42 41.3%
yes	1.57 63.7%	1.61 62.1%	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.45 69.0%	1.48 67.6%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.40 71.4%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.34 74.6%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.50 66.7%	1.56 64.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%

Match center

Aston Villa

L D W D L

27.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:2 Wolves

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Leeds

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:0 Brighton

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Bournemouth

01.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Brentford

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

5 Points

Chelsea

L D D W W

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:2 Arsenal

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:1 Burnley

10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 2:2 Leeds

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 3:1 Wolves

31.01 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 3:2 West Ham

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Chelsea

Aston Villa

1 matches total

Chelsea

Aston Villa: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Chelsea: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 2:1 (27.12 17:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 27.12 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

27.12 17:30 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

2:1

Chelsea