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Premier League
Premier League England
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
26.10.2025 14:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Aston Villa - Manchester City

England Football
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
1 : 0
Finished
Manchester City
Manchester City

Aston Villa face Manchester City on October 26, 2025 in the Premier League, England.

Recent form (W-D-L): Aston Villa 3-2-0, Manchester City 4-1-0. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Manchester City the favourite at about 54%. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Manchester City October 26, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.41 / X 3.93 / 2 1.77
  • 1X2 market: Aston Villa 21.8% / X 24.4% / Manchester City 53.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4% 15 books · best price +8.0%
1 21.4%
X 24.4%
2 54.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 56.7%
Under 2.5 43.3%

Odds source: consensus of 15 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 26.10.2025 14:00 UTC
Market 1 21.7% @ 4.41 / X 24.3% @ 3.93 / 2 54.0% @ 1.77
Match center

Aston Villa - Manchester City

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.78 market consensus · line only
X 3.93 market consensus · line only
1 4.42 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.22 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 2.08 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.21 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.20 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.63 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.60 21.7%
X 3.95 25.3%
1.78 56.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.33 23.1% 4.55 22.0% 4.42 22.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5%
X 3.85 26.0% 3.90 25.6% 4.18 23.9% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.05 24.7%
1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.15 46.5% 2.28 43.9% 2.17 46.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.28 43.9%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.63 61.4% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.11 47.4%
Match center
Aston Villa
W W W D D
19.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 2:1 TottenkhemTottenkhem
05.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 2:1 BurnleyBurnley
28.09 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 3:1 FulhamFulham
21.09 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:1 SunderlandSunderland
13.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 0:0 EvertonEverton
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
11 Points
Manchester City
W W W D W
18.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 2:0 EvertonEverton
05.10 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 1:0 BrentfordBrentford
27.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 5:1 BurnleyBurnley
21.09 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 1:1 ArsenalArsenal
14.09 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 3:0 Manchester UnitedManchester United
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Manchester City

Aston Villa
1 matches total
Manchester City
Aston Villa: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Manchester City: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Manchester City 1:2 (22.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 22.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

22.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa
1:2
Manchester City