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Premier League
Premier League England
19.04.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
19.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Aston Villa - Newcastle

England Football
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
4 : 1
Finished
Newcastle
Newcastle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Newcastle April 19, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.49 / X 3.64 / 2 2.84
  • 1X2 market: Aston Villa 39.1% / X 26.7% / Newcastle 34.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.8%
1 39.0%
X 26.7%
2 34.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%
Over 2.5 58.4%
Under 2.5 41.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Aston Villa - Newcastle

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.84 market consensus · line only
X 3.64 market consensus · line only
1 2.49 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.59 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.33 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.49 40.2%
X 3.64 27.5%
2.84 35.2%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.59 62.9%
home_away 1.32 75.8%
home_draw 1.47 68.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.66 60.2%
Under 2.5 2.33 42.9%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.81 55.3%
2.07 48.3%
Match center
Aston Villa
W W W D W
12.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 3:0 SouthamptonSouthampton
05.04 16:30 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 2:1 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
02.04 18:45 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 3:0 BrightonBrighton
26.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:1 BournemouthBournemouth
19.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 3:1 FulhamFulham
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points
Newcastle
W W W W L
16.04 18:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 5:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
13.04 15:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 4:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
07.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 3:0 Leicester
02.04 18:45 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:1 BrentfordBrentford
27.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 ChelseaChelsea
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Newcastle

Aston Villa
0 matches total
Newcastle
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history