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Premier League England

16.08.2025 11:30 UTC Match prediction

16.08.2025 11:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Newcastle

England Football

Aston Villa

0 : 0

Finished

Newcastle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Newcastle August 16, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite Fonbet: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.35 / X 3.60 / 2 3.00
1X2 market: Aston Villa 41.1% / X 26.8% / Newcastle 32.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 58.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.7%

1 41.0%

X 26.8%

2 32.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 58.5%

Under 2.5 41.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 16.08.2025 11:30 UTC

Match center

Aston Villa - Newcastle

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.00 Fonbet · line only

X 3.60 Fonbet · line only

1 2.35 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

X2 1.60 Fonbet · line only

12 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.32 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.91 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.50 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.50 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.42 41.3%
X	3.54 28.3%
	3.01 33.2%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.34 42.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.36 42.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.35 42.6%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.75 26.7%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.45 29.0%
	2.90 34.5%	2.95 33.9%	2.99 33.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Betway	Bwin
no	2.30 43.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%
yes	1.55 64.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.56 64.1%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betway
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.40 71.4%