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Premier League England

35 round 03.05.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

03.05.2026 18:00 UTC 35 round

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Tottenham

England Football

Stadium Villa Park

Referee S. Barrott

Capacity 42 788

Aston Villa

1 : 2

Finished

Tottenham

Aston Villa face Tottenham on May 3, 2026 in the Premier League, England.

Recent form (W-D-L): Aston Villa 2-1-2, Tottenham 1-2-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards Aston Villa, an implied 45% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 42% to win — broadly in line with the market. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Aston Villa — 42%

1 · Aston Villa42.2%

X · draw26.5%

2 · Tottenham31.2%

Model estimate: win Aston Villa 42.2%, draw 26.5%, win Tottenham 31.2%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Tottenham May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.12 / X 3.60 / 2 3.29
1X2 market: Aston Villa 44.7% / X 26.4% / Tottenham 28.9%
Glicko: Aston Villa 42.2% / X 26.5% / Tottenham 31.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 44.8%

X 26.4%

2 28.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 54.8%

Under 2.5 45.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 47.7%

Total Over 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Villa Park (Birmingem, England), 42 767 zriteley (100% pri vmestimosti 42 788)

Referee Semyuel Barrott

Start 03.05.2026 18:00 UTC

Market 1 44.8% @ 2.12 / X 26.4% @ 3.60 / 2 28.9% @ 3.29

Capacity 42,788

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Aston Villa 42%

💹 Market Aston Villa 4471%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Aston Villa - Tottenham

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Aston Villa - Tottenkhem Khotspur, 3 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. APL 2025-2026 — Championship England po futbolu, 35-y Round. Aston Villa - Tottenkhem Khotspur, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 80

min Event Player Team

12' 12' Normal Goal | C. Gallagher C. Gallagher Tottenham

25' 25' Normal Goal | Richarlison Richarlison Tottenham

27' 27' Yellow Card | R. Kolo Muani R. Kolo Muani Tottenham

45' 45' Yellow Card | R. Bentancur R. Bentancur Tottenham

51' 51' Yellow Card | R. Barkley R. Barkley Aston Villa

60' 60' Substitution 1 | T. Abraham | assist/sub out: O. Watkins T. Abraham Aston Villa

67' 67' Substitution 1 | R. Bentancur | assist/sub out: Y. Bissouma R. Bentancur Tottenham

67' 67' Substitution 2 | R. Kolo Muani | assist/sub out: D. Spence R. Kolo Muani Tottenham

Metric Aston Villa Tottenham SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.32 0.99 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final

Shots off target 1 3 final

Shots on target 1 5 final

Udary vsego 5 10 final

Fouls soversheno 12 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 5 final

Offsides 2 4 final

Aston Villa #4 K. Danso, #6 João Palhinha, #9 Richarlison, #11 M. Tel, #13 D. Udogie, #22 C. Gallagher, #23 P. Porro, #30 R. Bentancur, #31 A. Kinský, #37 Micky van de Ven, #39 R. Kolo Muani

Tottenham #2 M. Cash, #3 Victor Lindelöf, #5 T. Mings, #6 R. Barkley, #8 Y. Tielemans, #18 T. Abraham, #19 J. Sancho, #22 I. Maatsen, #23 E. Martinez, #26 L. Bogarde, #27 M. Rogers

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Gray Aston Villa Seyvy 0

A. Kinský Aston Villa Seyvy 0

A. Kinský Aston Villa Klyuchevye pasy 38

A. Kinský Aston Villa Reyting (staryy) 6.2

A. Kinský Aston Villa Otbory vsego 20

B. Austin Aston Villa Seyvy 0

C. Gallagher Aston Villa Dribling popytki 4

C. Gallagher Aston Villa Dribling uspeshno 1

C. Gallagher Aston Villa Edinoborstva vsego 1

C. Gallagher Aston Villa Edinoborstva vyigrano 7

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Aston Villa 45.1% 42.2% market and model agree

Draw 26.6% 26.5% draw risk

Tottenham 28.2% 31.2%

xG - 1.39 : 1.15

Total 2.5 Over 53.6% - Under 46.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 42.2% / 26.5% / 31.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,562 / 1,441 Aston Villa / Tottenham

RD 71 / 70 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.29 market consensus · no value · model 31.2%

X 3.60 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.12 market consensus · no value · model 42.2%

Double chance

X2 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 57.8%

12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 73.5%

1X 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 68.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.74 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.36 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.22 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.95 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 53.6%

Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.26 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.10 47.6%	2.17 46.1%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.74 26.7%	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.65 27.4%	3.70 27.0%
	3.15 31.8%	3.48 28.7%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.35 29.9%	3.40 29.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.20 45.5%	2.24 44.6%	2.30 43.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.21 45.3%	2.35 42.6%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.54 64.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.70 58.8%	1.77 56.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.78 56.2%	1.67 59.9%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.33 75.2%
Over 2.25	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 2.5	1.73 57.8%	—
Over 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—
Over 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	4.00 25.0%	—
Under 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—
Under 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—

Match center

Aston Villa

Founded 1874

Tottenham

Founded 1882

Match center

Aston Villa

BK Bubakar Kamara pz

AO Amadu Onana pz

Tottenham

DK Deyan Kulushevski pz

VO Vilson Odober pz

KR Kristian Romero zsch

MK Mokhammed Kudus pz

GV Gulelmo Vikario vr

BD Ben Devis zsch

DS Dominik Solanke np

KhS Khavi Simons pz

Aston Villa Founded: 1874

Tottenham Founded: 1882

Match center

Aston Villa

L W D W L

25.04 11:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Fulham

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 4:3 Sunderland

12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Nottingem Forest

22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:0 West Ham

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:3 Manchester United

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Tottenham

W D L L D

25.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Tottenham 1:0 Wolves

18.04 16:30 UTC Premier League

Tottenham 2:2 Brighton

12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Tottenham 0:1 Sunderland

22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League

Tottenham 0:3 Nottingem Forest

15.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Tottenham 1:1 Liverpul

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Tottenham

Aston Villa

2 matches total

Tottenham

Aston Villa: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Tottenham: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 2:0 (16.05 18:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 19.10 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 4

Match history

19.10 13:00 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

2:1

Tottenkhem

16.05 18:30 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

2:0

Tottenkhem

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Aston Villa

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Tottenham

34 Games 34

17 Wins 8

7 Draws 10

10 Losses 16

47 Scored 43

42 Conceded 53

58 Points 34

83.87 Attacks 91.71

45.07 Dangerous attacks 47.87

0 Big chances 0

12.56 Shots on goal 11.21

4.38 Shots on target 4

iya 2.53 0.03 Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Konor Gallakher 0:1 12' Risharlison Matis Tel 0:2 25' Emiliano Buendiya Metti Kesh 1:2 90+6' Nakazaniya Randal Kolo Muani 27' Rodrigo Bentankur 45' Ross Barkli 51' Matis Tel 73' Morgan Rodzhers 77' Kevin Danso 81' Konor Gallakher 90+6'

Aston Villa Tottenkhem Khotspur 34 Games 34 17 Wins 8 7 Draws 10 Losses 16 47 Scored 43 42 Conceded 53 58 Points 34 83.87 Attacks 91.71 45.07 Dangerous attacks 47.87 0 Big chances 0 12.56 Shots on goal 11.21 4.38 Udary v stvor 4 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.24 Uglovye 5.26 1.06 Offsaydy 1.53 10.12 Foly 11.91 53.94 % vladeniya myachom 49.94 1.53 Warnings 2.53 0.03 Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Konor Gallakher 0:1 12' Risharlison Matis Tel 0:2 25' Emiliano Buendiya Metti Kesh 1:2 90+6' Nakazaniya Randal Kolo Muani 27' Rodrigo Bentankur 45' Ross Barkli 51' Matis Tel 73' Morgan Rodzhers 77' Kevin Danso 81' Konor Gallakher 90+6'