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Premier League
Premier League England
22.03.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction
22.03.2026 14:15 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Aston Villa - West Ham

England Football
Stadium Villa Park
Referee Paul Tierney
Capacity 42 788
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
2 : 0
Finished
West Ham
West Ham

Aston Villa face West Ham on March 22, 2026 in the Premier League, England.

Recent form (W-D-L): Aston Villa 1-1-3, West Ham 1-3-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Aston Villa the favourite at about 55%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win — below the market read. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Aston Villa — 50%

1 · Aston Villa50.1%
X · draw25.9%
2 · West Ham23.9%

Model estimate: win Aston Villa 50.1%, draw 25.9%, win West Ham 23.9%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - West Ham March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.85 / 2 4.69
  • 1X2 market: Aston Villa 54.8% / X 24.8% / West Ham 20.4%
  • Glicko: Aston Villa 50.1% / X 25.9% / West Ham 23.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 44.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 54.9%
X 24.8%
2 20.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 55.6%
Under 2.5 44.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 22.03.2026 14:15 UTC
Market 1 54.9% @ 1.74 / X 24.8% @ 3.85 / 2 20.4% @ 4.69
Stadium Villa Park (Birmingham)
Referee Paul Tierney
Capacity 42,788

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Aston Villa 50%
💹 Market Aston Villa 5482%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Aston Villa - West Ham

Aston Villa: win 1.75 Aston Villa: draw 3.93 West Ham win: 4.86 Obschiy Total goals bolshe 2.5: 1.74 Obschiy Total goals menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy Total goals Aston Villa bolshe 1.5: 1.72 Individualnyy Total goals Aston Villa menshe 1.5: 2.19 Individualnyy Total goals…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 79
min Event Player Team
15' 15' Normal Goal | J. McGinn | assist/sub out: J. Sancho J. McGinn Aston Villa
27' 27' Penalty cancelled | Ollie Watkins O. Watkins Aston Villa
45' 45' Yellow Card | A. Wan-Bissaka A. Wan-Bissaka West Ham
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Freddie Potts | assist/sub out: A. Traore F. Potts West Ham
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Valentín Castellanos | assist/sub out: Callum Wilson V. Castellanos West Ham
67' 67' Substitution 1 | J. McGinn | assist/sub out: Y. Tielemans J. McGinn Aston Villa
67' 67' Substitution 2 | J. Sancho | assist/sub out: Douglas Luiz J. Sancho Aston Villa
67' 67' Substitution 3 | Ross Barkley | assist/sub out: Leon Bailey R. Barkley Aston Villa
Metric Aston Villa West Ham SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.69 0.85 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 5 final
Shots off target 9 3 final
Shots on target 7 1 final
Udary vsego 23 9 final
Fouls soversheno 3 7 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 0 4 final
Aston Villa #1 M. Hermansen, #4 Axel Disasi, #11 V. Castellanos, #12 M. Diouf, #15 K. Mavropanos, #18 Mateus Fernandes, #19 Pablo Felipe, #20 J. Bowen, #28 T. Soucek, #29 A. Wan-Bissaka, #32 F. Potts
West Ham #2 M. Cash, #4 E. Konsa, #6 R. Barkley, #7 J. McGinn, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #14 Pau Torres, #19 J. Sancho, #23 E. Martinez, #24 A. Onana, #27 M. Rogers
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Areola Aston Villa Seyvy 0
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.assists 0
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Dribling popytki 1
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Seyvy 0
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Klyuchevye pasy 19
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Wan-Bissaka Aston Villa Bloki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Aston Villa 55.6% 50.1% market and model agree
Draw 24.6% 25.9% draw risk
West Ham 19.8% 23.9%
xG - 1.51 : 0.96
Total 2.5 Over 44.1% - Under 55.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.1% / 25.9% / 23.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,562 / 1,460 Aston Villa / West Ham
RD 74 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.65 market consensus · no value · model 23.9%
X 3.82 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.76 market consensus · no value · model 50.1%
Double chance
X2 2.11 market consensus · weak value +5.2% · model 49.9%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%
1X 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 76.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.23 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 44.1%
Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · value +20.3% · model 55.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.14 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.00 50.0%
X 3.46 28.9%
4.07 24.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.95 25.3% 4.03 24.8% 3.60 27.8% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6%
4.65 21.5% 4.80 20.8% 4.88 20.5% 4.40 22.7% 4.50 22.2% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.09 47.9%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.17 85.5%
Match center
Aston Villa
Founded 1874
West Ham
Founded 1895
Match center
Aston Villa
BK B. Kamara Knee Injury
YT Y. Tielemans Ankle Injury
West Ham
ŁF Ł. Fabiański Back Injury
CS C. Summerville Calf Injury
Aston Villa Founded: 1874
West Ham Founded: 1895
Match center
Aston Villa
L L L D W
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:3 Manchester UnitedManchester United
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:4 ChelseaChelsea
27.02 20:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 0:2 WolvesWolves
21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:1 LeedsLeeds
11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:0 BrightonBrighton
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
West Ham
D W L D D
14.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
West Ham 1:1 Manchester CityManchester City
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
West Ham 1:0 FulhamFulham
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
West Ham 2:5 LiverpulLiverpul
21.02 17:30 UTC Premier League
West Ham 0:0 BournemouthBournemouth
10.02 20:15 UTC Premier League
West Ham 1:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - West Ham

Aston Villa
1 matches total
West Ham
Aston Villa: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
West Ham: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Aston Villa 3:2 (14.12 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 14.12 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

14.12 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa
3:2
West Ham
Match center
Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.