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Premier League
Premier League England
35 round 03.05.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
03.05.2026 13:00 UTC 35 round
Finished

Premier League

England

Bournemouth - Crystal Palace

England Football
Stadium Vitality Stadium
Referee R. Jones
Capacity 12 000
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
3 : 0
Finished
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace

Bournemouth face Crystal Palace on May 3, 2026 in the Premier League, England.

Recent form (W-D-L): Bournemouth 2-3-0, Crystal Palace 2-2-1. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards Bournemouth, an implied 58% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 54% to win — below the market read. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bournemouth — 54%

1 · Bournemouth54.5%
X · draw25.0%
2 · Crystal Palace20.6%

Model estimate: win Bournemouth 54.5%, draw 25.0%, win Crystal Palace 20.6%. Model favourite — Bournemouth.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bournemouth - Crystal Palace May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bournemouth.

Strongest: Bournemouth - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.64 / X 4.07 / 2 5.07
  • 1X2 market: Bournemouth 57.9% / X 23.4% / Crystal Palace 18.8%
  • Glicko: Bournemouth 54.5% / X 25.0% / Crystal Palace 20.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 57.9%
X 23.3%
2 18.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 56.8%
Under 2.5 43.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/5
Confidence 57.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Stadium Vitaliti (Bornmut, England), 11 122 zritelya (93% pri vmestimosti 12 000)
Referee Robert Dzhons
Start 03.05.2026 13:00 UTC
Market 1 57.9% @ 1.64 / X 23.3% @ 4.07 / 2 18.7% @ 5.07
Capacity 12,000
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bournemouth 54%
💹 Market Bournemouth 5788%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bournemouth - Crystal Palace

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Bornmut - Kristal Pelas, 3 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. APL 2025-2026 — Championship England po futbolu, 35-y Round. Bornmut - Kristal Pelas, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Yellow Card | J. Canvot Jaydee Canvot Crystal Palace
10' 10' Own Goal | J. Lerma J. Lerma Bournemouth
32' 32' Penalty | E. J. Kroupi Eli Junior Kroupi Bournemouth
38' 38' Yellow Card | M. Lacroix M. Lacroix Crystal Palace
46' 46' Substitution 1 | D. Munoz | assist/sub out: T. Mitchell D. Munoz Crystal Palace
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Yeremy Pino | assist/sub out: I. Sarr Y. Pino Crystal Palace
46' 46' Substitution 3 | D. Kamada | assist/sub out: A. Wharton Daichi Kamada Crystal Palace
65' 65' Substitution 4 | J. S. Larsen | assist/sub out: J. Mateta J. Larsen Crystal Palace
Metric Bournemouth Crystal Palace SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.08 0.89 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 1 final
Shots off target 5 5 final
Shots on target 5 1 final
Udary vsego 16 7 final
Fouls soversheno 10 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Bournemouth #1 D. Petrovic, #3 Adrien Truffert, #9 Evanilson, #12 Tyler Adams, #16 Marcus Tavernier, #5 M. Senesi, #8 A. Scott, #22 Eli Junior Kroupi, #23 James Hill, #37 Rayan, #20 A. Jimenez
Crystal Palace #1 D. Henderson, #10 Y. Pino, #34 C. Riad, #55 Justin Devenny, #5 M. Lacroix, #18 Daichi Kamada, #22 J. Larsen, #8 J. Lerma, #11 B. Johnson, #23 Jaydee Canvot, #2 D. Munoz
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Adli Bournemouth football.player.assists 0
A. Adli Bournemouth Dribling popytki 1
A. Adli Bournemouth Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Adli Bournemouth Seyvy 0
A. Adli Bournemouth football.player.minutes_played 10
A. Adli Bournemouth Klyuchevye pasy 4
A. Adli Bournemouth Reyting (staryy) 6.7
A. Adli Bournemouth Otbory vsego 3
A. Jimenez Bournemouth football.player.assists 0
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Dribling popytki 5
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bournemouth 59.0% 54.5% market and model agree
Draw 23.1% 25.0% draw risk
Crystal Palace 17.8% 20.6%
xG - 1.61 : 0.88
Total 2.5 Over 37.8% - Under 62.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.5% / 25.0% / 20.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,556 / 1,501 Bournemouth / Crystal Palace
RD 71 / 71 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.07 market consensus · no value · model 20.6%
X 4.07 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 54.5%
Double chance
X2 2.25 market consensus · no value · model 45.5%
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.0%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.27 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.76 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.70 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Under 2.5 2.20 market consensus · value +36.8% · model 62.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.10 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.64 61.0% 1.68 59.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.26 23.5% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.25 23.5% 4.10 24.4%
4.80 20.8% 5.43 18.4% 4.75 21.1% 5.25 19.1% 5.20 19.2% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.08 48.1% 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.69 59.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.20 45.5% 2.33 42.9% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.20 45.5%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.25 — 1.56 64.1%
Over 2.5 1.67 59.9% 1.74 57.5%
Over 3.5 2.70 37.0% —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 2.5 2.15 46.5% —
Under 3.5 1.45 69.0% —
Under 4.5 1.17 85.5% —
Match center
Bournemouth
Founded 1899
Crystal Palace
Founded 1861
Match center
Bournemouth
DK Dzhastin Klyuyvert np
LK Lyuis Kuk pz
Crystal Palace
EN Eddi Nketia np
EG Evann Gessan pz
ShD Sheyk Dukure pz
Bournemouth Founded: 1899
Crystal Palace Founded: 1861
Match center
Bournemouth
D W W D D
22.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:2 LeedsLeeds
18.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:1 NyukaslNyukasl
11.04 11:30 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:1 ArsenalArsenal
20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester UnitedManchester United
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 0:0 BurnleyBurnley
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Crystal Palace
L D W D W
25.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Crystal Palace 1:3 LiverpulLiverpul
20.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Crystal Palace 0:0 West HamWest Ham
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Crystal Palace 2:1 NyukaslNyukasl
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Crystal Palace 0:0 LeedsLeeds
05.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Crystal Palace 3:1 TottenkhemTottenkhem
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBournemouth - Crystal Palace

Bournemouth
2 matches total
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth: 0 (0%)
Draws:2 (100%)
Crystal Palace: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (3:3, 18.10 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 3:3 (18.10 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 3

Match history

18.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth
3:3
Kristal Pelas
19.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth
0:0
Kristal Pelas
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Bournemouth
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Crystal Palace
Bournemouth Team comparison Crystal Palace
34 Games 33
11 Wins 11
16 Draws 10
7 Losses 12
52 Scored 36
52 Conceded 39
49 Points 43
92.3 Attacks 85.88
47.57 Dangerous attacks 42.59
0 Big chances 0
13.53 Shots on goal 11.52
4.76 Shots on target 3.67
ya 2.06 0.03 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Khefferson Lerma 1:0 10' Eli Krupi 2:0 32' Rayan Devid Bruks 3:0 77' Nakazaniya Dzheydi Kanvo 6' Maksans Lakrua 38'

Bornmut Kristal Pelas 34 Games 33 11 Wins 11 16 Draws 10 7 Losses 12 52 Scored 36 52 Conceded 39 49 Points 43 92.3 Attacks 85.88 47.57 Dangerous attacks 42.59 0 Big chances 0 13.53 Shots on goal 11.52 4.76 Udary v stvor 3.67 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.71 Uglovye 4.3 1.82 Offsaydy 1.94 11.88 Foly 10.82 50.32 % vladeniya myachom 46.27 2.38 Warnings 2.06 0.03 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Khefferson Lerma 1:0 10' Eli Krupi 2:0 32' Rayan Devid Bruks 3:0 77' Nakazaniya Dzheydi Kanvo 6' Maksans Lakrua 38'