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Premier League England

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Brighton - Arsenal

England Football

Brighton

0 : 1

Finished

Arsenal

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Brighton - Arsenal March 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.13 / X 3.88 / 2 1.67
1X2 market: Brighton 18.6% / X 24.6% / Arsenal 56.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 18.5%

X 24.5%

2 56.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.9%

Over 2.5 50.1%

Under 2.5 49.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

Brighton - Arsenal

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.68 market consensus · line only

X 3.88 market consensus · line only

1 5.15 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.17 market consensus · line only

12 1.26 market consensus · line only

1X 2.21 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.17 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.04 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.21 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.89 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	5.37 18.6%
X	3.92 25.5%
	1.69 59.2%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	5.10 19.6%	5.30 18.9%	5.27 19.0%	4.80 20.8%	5.00 20.0%	5.20 19.2%
X	3.75 26.7%	4.00 25.0%	4.08 24.5%	3.70 27.0%	3.80 26.3%	3.95 25.3%
	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.15 87.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.13 88.5%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	2.15 46.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.18 45.9%	2.10 47.6%

Match center

Brighton

W W L L D

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:1 Nottingem Forest

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:0 Brentford

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Aston Villa

08.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Kristal Pelas

31.01 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:1 Everton

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

7 Points

Arsenal

W W D D W

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:1 Chelsea

22.02 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 4:1 Tottenkhem

18.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:2 Wolves

12.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:1 Brentford

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 3:0 Sunderland

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBrighton - Arsenal

Brighton

1 matches total

Arsenal

Brighton: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Arsenal: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Arsenal 1:2 (27.12 15:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 27.12 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.12 15:00 UTC

Premier League

Brighton

1:2

Arsenal