Premier League England

21.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

21.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Brighton - Chelsea

England Futbol

Stadium Amex Stadium

Capacity 31 800

Brighton

3 : 0

Finished

Chelsea

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Chelsea — 39%

1 · Brighton34.6%

X · draw26.9%

2 · Chelsea38.6%

Model estimate: win Brighton 34.6%, draw 26.9%, win Chelsea 38.6%. Model favourite — Chelsea.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Brighton - Chelsea 21 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Brighton.

Line favourite market consensus: Brighton. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.65 / 2 2.71
1X2 market: Brighton 38.9% / X 26.1% / Chelsea 35.0%
Glicko: Brighton 34.6% / X 26.9% / Chelsea 38.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 42.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 38.8%

X 26.1%

2 35.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 57.7%

Under 2.5 42.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 3/5

Confidence 49.9%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 21.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Capacity 31,800

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ????? ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Chelsea 39%

💹 Market Brighton 3886%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Brighton - Chelsea

Brighton: Победа 2.40 Brighton: Ничья 3.60 Chelsea Победа: 2.75 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.67 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.20 Индивидуальный тотал голов Brighton больше 1.5: 2.00 Индивидуальный тотал голов Brighton меньше 1.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов Chelsea боль…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:0

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

3' 3' Normal Goal | F. Kadıoğlu Mikel Vesga Brighton

45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Wesley Fofana S. Mavididi Chelsea

46' 46' Substitution 2 | M. Wieffer | assist/sub out: J. Veltman Brighton

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Wesley Fofana | assist/sub out: A. Garnacho S. Mavididi Chelsea

56' 56' Normal Goal Brighton

58' 58' Yellow Card | Y. Minteh Brighton

72' 72' Substitution 3 | Liam Delap | assist/sub out: Marc Guiu Chelsea

73' 73' Substitution 4 | Roméo Lavia | assist/sub out: Dário Essugo Chelsea

Metric Brighton Chelsea SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 2.14 0.37 final

Заблокированные удары 2 4 final

Удары мимо 4 2 final

Удары в створ 9 0 final

Удары всего 15 6 final

Фолы совершено 15 6 final

Желтые карточки 1 1 final

Офсайды 0 4 final

Brighton #1 Robert Sánchez, #3 M. Cucurella, #7 P. Neto, #8 E. Fernandez, #9 Liam Delap, #21 Jorrel Hato, #23 T. Chalobah, #25 M. Caicedo, #27 M. Gusto, #29 Wesley Fofana, #45 R. Lavia

Chelsea #1 Bart Verbruggen, #6 Jan Paul van Hecke, #10 Georginio Rutter, #11 Y. Minteh, #13 Jack Hinshelwood, #17 Carlos Baleba, #21 Olivier Boscagli, #22 K. Mitoma, #24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu, #27 Mats Wieffer, #30 Pascal Groß

Player Team Metric SStats

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton football.player.assists 0

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Дриблинг успешно 2

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Единоборства выиграно 5

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Пропущено голов 1

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Сейвы 0

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton football.player.minutes_played 45

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Точность пасов % 1

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Ключевые пасы 10

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Рейтинг (старый) 6.3

Alejandro Garnacho Brighton Удары в створ 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Brighton 39.3% 34.6% market favourite

Draw 25.9% 26.9% draw risk

Chelsea 34.8% 38.6% Glicko-противоход

xG - 1.21 : 1.30

Total 2.5 Over 42.6% - Under 57.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 34.6% / 26.9% / 38.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,554 / 1,546 Brighton / Chelsea

RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.71 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.6%

X 3.65 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.45 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 34.6%

Double chance

X2 1.54 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.4%

12 1.28 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.1%

1X 1.45 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.65 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.48 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%

Under 2.5 2.25 market consensus · value +29.2% · model 57.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.43 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	2.42 41.3%	2.51 39.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.47 40.5%	2.45 40.8%
Х	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.75 26.7%
П2	2.66 37.6%	2.83 35.3%	2.63 38.0%	2.75 36.4%	2.75 36.4%	2.70 37.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.40 41.7%	2.42 41.3%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.60 38.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.39 41.8%	2.48 40.3%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.51 66.2%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.51 66.2%	1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.55 64.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.45 69.0%	1.49 67.1%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
ТБ 1.5	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.22 82.0%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.27 78.7%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.46 68.5%
ТБ 2.5	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%
ТБ 3.5	2.60 38.5%	—
ТБ 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
ТМ 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
ТМ 1.5	4.33 23.1%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.48 67.6%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

Brighton

Founded 1901

Chelsea

Founded 1905

Match center

Brighton

D W W W L

18.04 16:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:2 Tottenkhem

11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:0 Burnley

21.03 12:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:1 Liverpul

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:0 Sunderland

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Arsenal

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

10 Points

Chelsea

L L L L W

18.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Manchester United

12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Manchester City

21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Everton

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Nyukasl

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 4:1 Aston Villa

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.8 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBrighton - Chelsea

Brighton

2 matches total

Chelsea

Brighton: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Chelsea: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Brighton 3:1 (27.09 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (2:4, 28.09 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 5

Match history

27.09 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Brighton

3:1

Chelsea

28.09 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Brighton

2:4

Chelsea

Match center

? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.