Who is the favourite in Brighton vs Chelsea?

By the PropickAI model, Brighton is favoured — about 39% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Brighton vs Chelsea?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Brighton. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Brighton vs Chelsea?

Live odds for Brighton vs Chelsea from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Chelsea win probability ~39% confidence Low best odds 2.71

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Chelsea. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Premier League England

21.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

21.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Brighton vs Chelsea — Football prediction

England Football

Stadium Amex Stadium

Capacity 31 800

Brighton

3 : 0

Finished

Chelsea

Brighton go head-to-head with Chelsea on April 21, 2026 in the Premier League, England.

Recent form (W-D-L): Brighton 3-1-1, Chelsea 1-0-4. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Brighton the favourite at about 39%. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 35% to win — below the market read. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Chelsea — 39%

1 · Brighton34.6%

X · draw26.9%

2 · Chelsea38.6%

Model estimate: win Brighton 34.6%, draw 26.9%, win Chelsea 38.6%. Model favourite — Chelsea.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Brighton - Chelsea April 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Brighton.

Line favourite market consensus: Brighton. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.65 / 2 2.71
1X2 market: Brighton 38.9% / X 26.1% / Chelsea 35.0%
Glicko: Brighton 34.6% / X 26.9% / Chelsea 38.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 42.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6% 13 books · best price +2.5%

1 39.0%

X 26.0%

2 35.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 57.7%

Under 2.5 42.3%

Odds source: consensus of 13 books (10Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 3/5

Confidence 49.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 21.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Market 1 38.8% @ 2.45 / X 26.1% @ 3.65 / 2 35.1% @ 2.71

Stadium Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Capacity 31,800

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Chelsea 39%

💹 Market Brighton 39%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Brighton - Chelsea

Brighton: win 2.40 Brighton: draw 3.60 Chelsea win: 2.75 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy Total goals Brighton Over 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy Total goals Brighton Under 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy Total goals Chelsea bol…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:0

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

3' 3' Normal Goal | F. Kadıoğlu Mikel Vesga Brayton

45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Wesley Fofana S. Mavididi Chelsi

46' 46' Substitution 2 | M. Wieffer | assist/sub out: J. Veltman Brayton

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Wesley Fofana | assist/sub out: A. Garnacho S. Mavididi Chelsi

56' 56' Normal Goal Brayton

58' 58' Yellow Card | Y. Minteh Brayton

72' 72' Substitution 3 | Liam Delap | assist/sub out: Marc Guiu Chelsi

73' 73' Substitution 4 | Roméo Lavia | assist/sub out: Dário Essugo Chelsi

Metric Brighton Chelsea SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.14 0.37 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 4 final

Shots off target 4 2 final

Shots on target 9 0 final

Udary vsego 15 6 final

Fouls soversheno 15 6 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final

Offsides 0 4 final

Brighton #1 Robert Sánchez, #3 M. Cucurella, #7 P. Neto, #8 E. Fernandez, #9 Liam Delap, #21 Jorrel Hato, #23 T. Chalobah, #25 M. Caicedo, #27 M. Gusto, #29 Wesley Fofana, #45 R. Lavia

Chelsea #1 Bart Verbruggen, #6 Jan Paul van Hecke, #10 Georginio Rutter, #11 Y. Minteh, #13 Jack Hinshelwood, #17 Carlos Baleba, #21 Olivier Boscagli, #22 K. Mitoma, #24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu, #27 Mats Wieffer, #30 Pascal Groß

Player Team Metric SStats

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton football.player.assists 0

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Dribling uspeshno 2

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Conceded golov 1

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Seyvy 0

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton football.player.minutes_played 45

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Tochnost pasov % 1

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Klyuchevye pasy 10

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Reyting (staryy) 6.3

Alejandro Garnacho Brayton Shots on target 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Brighton 39.3% 34.6% market favourite

Draw 25.9% 26.9% draw risk

Chelsea 34.8% 38.6% Glicko contrarian

xG - 1.21 : 1.30

Total 2.5 Over 42.6% - Under 57.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 34.6% / 26.9% / 38.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,554 / 1,546 Brighton / Chelsea

RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.71 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.6%

X 3.65 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.45 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 34.6%

Double chance

X2 1.54 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.4%

12 1.28 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.1%

1X 1.45 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.65 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.48 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%

Under 2.5 2.25 market consensus · value +29.2% · model 57.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.43 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.42 41.3%	2.51 39.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.47 40.5%	2.45 40.8%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.75 26.7%
	2.66 37.6%	2.83 35.3%	2.63 38.0%	2.75 36.4%	2.75 36.4%	2.70 37.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.40 41.7%	2.42 41.3%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.60 38.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.39 41.8%	2.48 40.3%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.51 66.2%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.51 66.2%	1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.55 64.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.45 69.0%	1.49 67.1%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 2.0	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.25	—	1.46 68.5%
Over 2.5	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%
Over 3.5	2.60 38.5%	—
Over 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	4.33 23.1%	—
Under 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.48 67.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

Brighton

Founded 1901

Chelsea

Founded 1905

Match center

Brighton

D W W W L

18.04 16:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:2 Tottenkhem

11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:0 Burnley

21.03 12:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:1 Liverpul

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:0 Sanderlend

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Arsenal

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

10 Points

Chelsea

L L L L W

18.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Manchester Yunayted

12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Manchester Siti

21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Everton

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Nyukasl

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 4:1 Aston Villa

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.8 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Brighton - Chelsea

Brighton

2 matches total

Chelsea

Brighton: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Chelsea: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Brayton 3:1 (27.09 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (2:4, 28.09 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

27.09 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Brayton

3:1

Chelsi

28.09 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Brayton

2:4

Chelsi

Match center

Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.

Brighton vs Chelsea — Football prediction

AI match prediction Brighton - Chelsea April 21, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

AI outcome leader: 1

Unlock the full AI analysis

Brighton - Chelsea

Match markets

Match Winner

Both teams to score

Double chance

Goals Over/Under

Overall statistics

Match history

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Frequently asked questions