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Premier League
Premier League England
14.09.2025 13:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Burnley - Liverpool

England Football
Burnley
Burnley
0 : 1
Finished
Liverpool
Liverpool

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Burnley - Liverpool September 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Liverpool.

Line favourite market consensus: Liverpool. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 8.38 / X 5.43 / 2 1.35
  • 1X2 market: Burnley 11.5% / X 17.6% / Liverpool 70.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%
1 11.4%
X 17.6%
2 70.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 63.6%
Under 2.5 36.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.09.2025 13:00 UTC
Match center

Burnley - Liverpool

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.35 market consensus · line only
X 5.43 market consensus · line only
1 8.41 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.08 market consensus · line only
12 1.16 market consensus · line only
1X 3.24 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.51 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.60 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.99 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
8.86 11.3%
X 5.47 18.3%
1.35 74.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
7.80 12.8% 8.20 12.2% 8.70 11.5% 8.00 12.5% 8.00 12.5% 8.00 12.5%
X 5.30 18.9% 5.60 17.9% 5.52 18.1% 5.00 20.0% 5.50 18.2% 5.60 17.9%
1.35 74.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 2.00 50.0% 2.09 47.9% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.96 51.0%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1% 1.08 92.6%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.15 87.0% 1.15 87.0%
home_draw 3.10 32.3% 3.32 30.1% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3%
Match center
Burnley
L W L
30.08 14:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 2:3 Manchester UnitedManchester United
23.08 14:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 2:0 SunderlandSunderland
16.08 14:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 0:3 TottenkhemTottenkhem
1 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.3 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Liverpool
W W W D L
31.08 15:30 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:0 ArsenalArsenal
25.08 19:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 3:2 NyukaslNyukasl
15.08 19:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 4:2 BournemouthBournemouth
25.05 15:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:1 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
19.05 19:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 2:3 BrightonBrighton
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBurnley - Liverpool

Burnley
0 matches total
Liverpool
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history