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Premier League
Premier League England
30.11.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Chelsea - Arsenal

England Football
Chelsea
Chelsea
1 : 1
Finished
Arsenal
Arsenal

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelsea - Arsenal November 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.09 / X 3.13 / 2 2.48
  • 1X2 market: Chelsea 30.9% / X 30.6% / Arsenal 38.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%
1 30.9%
X 30.5%
2 38.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 44.2%
Under 2.5 55.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.11.2025 16:30 UTC
Market 1 30.9% @ 3.09 / X 30.5% @ 3.13 / 2 38.5% @ 2.48
Match center

Chelsea - Arsenal

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.49 market consensus · line only
X 3.13 market consensus · line only
1 3.10 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.38 market consensus · line only
12 1.36 market consensus · line only
1X 1.56 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.44 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.94 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.17 31.6%
X 3.15 31.8%
2.53 39.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.05 32.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.19 31.4% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.20 31.3%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.24 30.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8%
2.48 40.3% 2.51 39.8% 2.54 39.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.55 39.2% 2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.39 71.9%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.58 63.3% 1.60 62.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7%
Match center
Chelsea
W W W L W
22.11 12:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 2:0 BurnleyBurnley
08.11 20:00 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 3:0 WolvesWolves
01.11 17:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 1:0 TottenkhemTottenkhem
25.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 1:2 SunderlandSunderland
18.10 11:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 3:0 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
12 Points
Arsenal
W D W W W
23.11 16:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 4:1 TottenkhemTottenkhem
08.11 17:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:2 SunderlandSunderland
01.11 15:00 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:0 BurnleyBurnley
26.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
18.10 16:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:0 FulhamFulham
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyChelsea - Arsenal

Chelsea
0 matches total
Arsenal
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history