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Premier League
Premier League England
30.08.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
30.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Leeds - Newcastle

England Football
Leeds
Leeds
0 : 0
Finished
Newcastle
Newcastle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leeds - Newcastle August 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Line favourite market consensus: Newcastle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.41 / X 3.48 / 2 2.15
  • 1X2 market: Leeds 28.0% / X 27.5% / Newcastle 44.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%
1 28.0%
X 27.5%
2 44.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 50.0%
Under 2.5 50.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Leeds - Newcastle

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 market consensus · line only
X 3.49 market consensus · line only
1 3.42 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.32 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.72 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.34 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.21 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.09 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.45 29.0%
X 3.61 27.7%
2.17 46.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.35 29.9% 3.35 29.9% 3.51 28.5% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.49 28.7% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6%
2.14 46.7% 2.12 47.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.20 45.5% 2.02 49.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.20 45.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.72 58.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.34 74.6%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8%
Match center
Leeds
L W
23.08 16:30 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:5 ArsenalArsenal
18.08 19:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 1:0 EvertonEverton
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.5 Scored
2.5 Conceded
3 Points
Newcastle
L D L L W
25.08 19:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:3 LiverpulLiverpul
16.08 11:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 0:0 Aston VillaAston Villa
25.05 15:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 0:1 EvertonEverton
18.05 15:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 0:1 ArsenalArsenal
11.05 11:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:0 ChelseaChelsea
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeeds - Newcastle

Leeds
0 matches total
Newcastle
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history