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Premier League England

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Manchester City - Nottingham Forest

England Football

Manchester City

2 : 2

Finished

Nottingham Forest

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester City - Nottingham Forest March 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 4.77 / 2 7.21
1X2 market: Manchester City 66.8% / X 19.9% / Nottingham Forest 13.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 58.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 66.9%

X 19.9%

2 13.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 58.8%

Under 2.5 41.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

Manchester City - Nottingham Forest

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.25 market consensus · line only

X 4.79 market consensus · line only

1 1.42 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.87 market consensus · line only

12 1.18 market consensus · line only

1X 1.10 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.89 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.19 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.90 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.31 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.99 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.42 70.4%
X	4.95 20.2%
	7.81 12.8%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.41 70.9%	1.41 70.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.40 71.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%
X	4.50 22.2%	5.00 20.0%	4.97 20.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%	4.90 20.4%
	7.30 13.7%	7.40 13.5%	6.86 14.6%	6.50 15.4%	6.50 15.4%	7.80 12.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.00 50.0%	2.01 49.8%	1.98 50.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.93 51.8%	1.95 51.3%	1.96 51.0%	2.02 49.5%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.81 55.3%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.80 35.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.92 34.3%	2.88 34.7%
home_away	1.15 87.0%	1.21 82.6%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.09 91.7%	1.12 89.3%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.06 94.3%

Match center

Manchester City

W W W W D

28.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:0 Leeds

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:1 Nyukasl

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 3:0 Fulham

08.02 16:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:1 Liverpul

01.02 16:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:2 Tottenkhem

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

13 Points

Nottingham Forest

L L D L D

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:2 Brighton

22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:1 Liverpul

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:0 Wolves

06.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:3 Leeds

01.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:1 Kristal Pelas

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

2 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyManchester City - Nottingham Forest

Manchester City

1 matches total

Nottingham Forest

Manchester City: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Manchester City 2:1 (27.12 12:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 27.12 12:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

27.12 12:30 UTC

Premier League

Manchester City

2:1

Nottingem Forest