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Premier League England

26.12.2025 20:00 UTC Match prediction

26.12.2025 20:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Manchester United - Newcastle

England Football

Manchester United

1 : 0

Finished

Newcastle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester United - Newcastle December 26, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester United.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester United. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.58 / X 3.59 / 2 2.62
1X2 market: Manchester United 36.9% / X 26.6% / Newcastle 36.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 59.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 37.0%

X 26.6%

2 36.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%

Over 2.5 59.5%

Under 2.5 40.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 26.12.2025 20:00 UTC

Match center

Manchester United - Newcastle

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.62 market consensus · line only

X 3.59 market consensus · line only

1 2.59 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.52 market consensus · line only

12 1.30 market consensus · line only

1X 1.50 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.59 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.10 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.61 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.37 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.54 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.49 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.62 38.2%
X	3.65 27.4%
	2.69 37.2%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.56 39.1%	2.58 38.8%	2.69 37.2%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.52 39.7%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.65 27.4%	3.70 27.0%	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%
	2.56 39.1%	2.61 38.3%	2.67 37.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.67 37.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.55 39.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.53 39.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.63 38.0%	2.49 40.2%	2.71 36.9%
yes	1.48 67.6%	1.49 67.1%	1.47 68.0%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.48 67.6%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.52 65.8%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.32 75.8%
home_draw	1.48 67.6%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%