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Premier League England

07.01.2026 20:15 UTC Match prediction

07.01.2026 20:15 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Newcastle - Leeds

England Football

Newcastle

4 : 3

Finished

Leeds

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Leeds January 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Line favourite market consensus: Newcastle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.68 / X 3.90 / 2 5.19
1X2 market: Newcastle 57.0% / X 24.6% / Leeds 18.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%

1 57.0%

X 24.6%

2 18.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.9%

Over 2.5 52.6%

Under 2.5 47.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 07.01.2026 20:15 UTC

Match center

Newcastle - Leeds

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.20 market consensus · line only

X 3.90 market consensus · line only

1 1.68 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.23 market consensus · line only

12 1.26 market consensus · line only

1X 1.17 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.24 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.71 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.77 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.98 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.69 59.2%
X	3.95 25.3%
	5.26 19.0%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.66 60.2%	1.68 59.5%	1.72 58.1%	1.65 60.6%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%
X	3.85 26.0%	4.00 25.0%	4.01 24.9%	3.75 26.7%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%
	5.10 19.6%	5.10 19.6%	5.43 18.4%	5.50 18.2%	5.20 19.2%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	Superbet
no	1.95 51.3%	2.03 49.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	2.05 48.8%	1.97 50.8%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
draw_away	2.20 45.5%	2.26 44.3%	2.20 45.5%	2.22 45.1%	2.28 43.9%	2.27 44.1%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%
home_draw	1.15 87.0%	1.19 84.0%	1.14 87.7%	1.19 84.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%

Match center

Newcastle

W W L D L

04.01 15:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:0 Kristal Pelas

30.12 19:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 3:1 Burnley

26.12 20:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 0:1 Manchester United

20.12 12:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:2 Chelsea

14.12 14:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 0:1 Sunderland

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Leeds

D D D W D

04.01 12:30 UTC Premier League

Leeds 1:1 Manchester United

01.01 17:30 UTC Premier League

Leeds 0:0 Liverpul

28.12 14:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 1:1 Sunderland

20.12 20:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 4:1 Kristal Pelas

14.12 16:30 UTC Premier League

Leeds 1:1 Brentford

1 Wins

4 Draws

0 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Leeds

Newcastle

1 matches total

Leeds

Newcastle: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Leeds: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (30.08 16:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.08 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Nyukasl

0:0

Leeds