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Premier League
Premier League England
13.04.2025 15:30 UTC Match prediction
13.04.2025 15:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Newcastle - Manchester United

England Football
Newcastle
Newcastle
4 : 1
Finished
Manchester United
Manchester United

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Manchester United April 13, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Line favourite market consensus: Newcastle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.63 / X 4.33 / 2 5.34
  • 1X2 market: Newcastle 59.5% / X 22.4% / Manchester United 18.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.2%
1 59.5%
X 22.4%
2 18.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.1%
Over 2.5 56.7%
Under 2.5 43.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 13.04.2025 15:30 UTC
Match center

Newcastle - Manchester United

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.34 market consensus · line only
X 4.33 market consensus · line only
1 1.63 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.40 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 1.19 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.24 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.63 61.4%
X 4.33 23.1%
5.34 18.7%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 2.40 41.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.19 84.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.71 58.5%
Under 2.5 2.24 44.6%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.27 78.7%
4.09 24.5%
Match center
Newcastle
W W L L D
07.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 3:0 Leicester
02.04 18:45 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:1 BrentfordBrentford
27.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 ChelseaChelsea
19.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 0:1 BrightonBrighton
05.10 16:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 0:0 EvertonEverton
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Manchester United
D L L W D
06.04 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 0:0 Manchester CityManchester City
01.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 0:1 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
27.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 1:2 West HamWest Ham
19.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 2:1 BrentfordBrentford
06.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 0:0 Aston VillaAston Villa
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
5 Points