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Premier League England

04.03.2026 20:15 UTC Match prediction

04.03.2026 20:15 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Newcastle - Manchester United

England Football

Newcastle

2 : 1

Finished

Manchester United

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Manchester United March 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester United.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester United. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.61 / X 3.65 / 2 2.53
1X2 market: Newcastle 36.4% / X 26.1% / Manchester United 37.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 61.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 36.4%

X 26.0%

2 37.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%

Over 2.5 61.1%

Under 2.5 38.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.03.2026 20:15 UTC

Match center

Newcastle - Manchester United

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.54 market consensus · line only

X 3.66 market consensus · line only

1 2.62 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.48 market consensus · line only

12 1.28 market consensus · line only

1X 1.53 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.48 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.93 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.66 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.45 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.67 37.5%
X	3.72 26.9%
	2.61 38.3%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.62 38.2%	2.60 38.5%	2.69 37.2%	2.50 40.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.65 37.7%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.79 26.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.55 28.2%
	2.45 40.8%	2.53 39.5%	2.63 38.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.55 39.2%	2.57 38.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.60 38.5%	2.75 36.4%	2.61 38.3%	2.60 38.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.57 38.9%	2.80 35.7%	2.57 38.9%	2.76 36.2%
yes	1.45 69.0%	1.46 68.5%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.48 67.6%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.53 65.4%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%

Match center

Newcastle

L L W L L

28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Everton

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:2 Manchester City

10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:1 Tottenkhem

07.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Brentford

31.01 20:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:4 Liverpul

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

1.6 Scored

2.6 Conceded

3 Points

Manchester United

W W D W W

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:1 Kristal Pelas

23.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:0 Everton

10.02 20:15 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:1 West Ham

07.02 12:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:0 Tottenkhem

01.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 3:2 Fulham

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

13 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Manchester United

Newcastle

2 matches total

Manchester United

Newcastle: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Manchester United: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Nyukasl 4:1 (13.04 15:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (4:1, 13.04 15:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

26.12 20:00 UTC

Premier League

Nyukasl

0:1

Manchester United

13.04 15:30 UTC

Premier League

Nyukasl

4:1

Manchester United