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Premier League England

22.03.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction

22.03.2026 12:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Newcastle - Sunderland

England Football

Stadium St. James' Park

Referee Anthony Taylor

Capacity 52 389

Newcastle

1 : 2

Finished

Sunderland

Newcastle go head-to-head with Sunderland on March 22, 2026 in the Premier League, England.

Recent form (W-D-L): Newcastle 3-0-2, Sunderland 1-1-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The market favourite is Newcastle at roughly 56%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 57% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Newcastle — 57%

1 · Newcastle ✓ Pick57.0%

X · draw23.6%

2 · Sunderland19.4%

Model estimate: win Newcastle 57.0%, draw 23.6%, win Sunderland 19.4%. Model favourite — Newcastle.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Sunderland March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Strongest: Newcastle - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.69 / X 3.86 / 2 5.04
1X2 market: Newcastle 56.4% / X 24.7% / Sunderland 18.9%
Glicko: Newcastle 57.0% / X 23.6% / Sunderland 19.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 57.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 ✓ Pick 56.4%

X 24.7%

2 18.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 50.8%

Under 2.5 49.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 57.0%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 22.03.2026 12:00 UTC

Market 1 56.4% @ 1.69 / X 24.7% @ 3.86 / 2 18.9% @ 5.04

Stadium St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee Anthony Taylor

Capacity 52,389

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Newcastle 57%

💹 Market Newcastle 5643%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Newcastle - Sunderland

Newcastle: win 1.69 Newcastle: draw 3.90 Sunderland win: 5.37 Obschiy Total goals bolshe 2.5: 1.92 Obschiy Total goals menshe 2.5: 1.99 Individualnyy Total goals Newcastle bolshe 1.5: 1.79 Individualnyy Total goals Newcastle menshe 1.5: 2.08 Individualnyy Total goals Sunde…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 18

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

10' 10' Normal Goal | A. Gordon | assist/sub out: N. Woltemade Newcastle

44' 44' Yellow Card | T. Hume Sunderland

54' 54' Substitution 1 | S. Botman | assist/sub out: M. Thiaw Bernett I./Dussault M. Newcastle

57' 57' Normal Goal | C. Talbi Sunderland

65' 65' Substitution 4 | K. Trippier | assist/sub out: T. Livramento Newcastle

65' 65' Substitution 2 | N. Woltemade | assist/sub out: J. Willock Newcastle

65' 65' Substitution 3 | A. Elanga | assist/sub out: J. Murphy Newcastle

76' 76' Substitution 5 | H. Barnes | assist/sub out: W. Osula Jefferson Wendler Filho Newcastle

Metric Newcastle Sunderland SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.29 2.44 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 5 final

Shots off target 8 5 final

Shots on target 4 7 final

Udary vsego 16 17 final

Fouls soversheno 8 19 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 6 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Newcastle #2 Kieran Trippier, #3 L. Hall, #4 Sven Botman, #7 Joelinton, #10 A. Gordon, #11 H. Barnes, #20 Anthony Elanga, #27 N. Woltemade, #32 A. Ramsdale, #33 D. Burn, #41 Jacob Ramsey

Sunderland #6 Lutsharel Geertruida, #7 C. Talbi, #9 Brian Brobbey, #11 C. Rigg, #13 L. O'Nien, #15 Omar Alderete, #19 H. Diarra, #27 N. Sadiki, #31 M. Ellborg, #32 T. Hume, #34 G. Xhaka

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Gordon Newcastle football.player.assists 0

A. Gordon Newcastle Dribling popytki 2

A. Gordon Newcastle Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Gordon Newcastle Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Gordon Newcastle Fouls na igroke 1

A. Gordon Newcastle football.player.goals 1

A. Gordon Newcastle Seyvy 0

A. Gordon Newcastle football.player.minutes_played 89

A. Gordon Newcastle Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Gordon Newcastle Klyuchevye pasy 13

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Newcastle 56.8% 57.0% market and model agree

Draw 24.7% 23.6% draw risk

Sunderland 18.4% 19.4%

xG - 1.73 : 0.90

Total 2.5 Over 57.1% - Under 42.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 57.0% / 23.6% / 19.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,531 / 1,502 Newcastle / Sunderland

RD 73 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.06 market consensus · no value · model 19.4%

X 3.87 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 57.0%

Double chance

X2 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 43.1%

12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 76.4%

1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 80.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.20 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.67 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.67 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.80 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · value +7.4% · model 57.1%

Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · no value · model 42.9%

Both teams to score

No 1.93 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.66 60.2%
X	4.04 24.8%
	5.34 18.7%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.69 59.2%	1.68 59.5%	1.74 57.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.75 57.1%
X	3.70 27.0%	4.00 25.0%	4.02 24.9%	3.75 26.7%	3.90 25.6%	3.85 26.0%
	4.85 20.6%	5.10 19.6%	5.23 19.1%	4.80 20.8%	5.00 20.0%	5.20 19.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.93 51.8%	1.97 50.8%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.88 53.2%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.82 55.0%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.22 45.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.13 88.5%

Match center

Newcastle

Founded 1892

Sunderland

Founded 1879

Match center

Newcastle

FS F. Schär Ankle Injury

EK E. Krafth Knee Injury

Sunderland

BT B. Traoré Injury

NM N. Mukiele Calf Injury

Newcastle Founded: 1892

Sunderland Founded: 1879

Match center

Newcastle

W W L L W

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:0 Chelsea

04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:1 Manchester United

28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Everton

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:2 Manchester City

10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:1 Tottenkhem

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

9 Points

Sunderland

L W D L L

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Sunderland 0:1 Brighton

03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Sunderland 1:0 Leeds

28.02 12:30 UTC Premier League

Sunderland 1:1 Bournemouth

22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Sunderland 1:3 Fulham

11.02 20:15 UTC Premier League

Sunderland 0:1 Liverpul

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.2 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Sunderland

Newcastle

1 matches total

Sunderland

Newcastle: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sunderland: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Sunderland 0:1 (14.12 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 14.12 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.12 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Nyukasl

0:1

Sunderland

Match center

Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.