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Romania. Cup. Qualification
Romania. Cup. Qualification
12.08.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
12.08.2026 14:30 UTC
Finished

Romania. Cup. Qualification

Minaur Baia Mare - CSM Satu Mare

Football
M
Minaur Baia Mare
5 : 0
Finished
C
CSM Satu Mare

Minaur Baia Mare meet CSM Satu Mare on August 12, 2026 in the Romania. Cup. Qualification.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 73% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Minaur Baia Mare — 73%

Pure model vs market (1 · Minaur Baia Mare): model 63% · market 74% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Minaur Baia Mare ✓ Pick73.2%
market74%
X · draw16.7%
market17%
2 · CSM Satu Mare10.1%
market10%

Model estimate: win Minaur Baia Mare 73.2%, draw 16.7%, win CSM Satu Mare 10.1%. Model favourite — Minaur Baia Mare.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Minaur Baia Mare (odds1.85) Score 2:1 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Baya Mare: probability 50% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.85)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Minaur Baia Mare - CSM Satu Mare August 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Minaur Baia Mare.

Line favourite market consensus: Minaur Baia Mare. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.36 / X 5.60 / 2 10.20
  • Glicko: Minaur Baia Mare 73.2% / X 16.7% / CSM Satu Mare 10.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.9% 5 books · best price +9.7%
1 ✓ Pick 73.8%
X 16.6%
2 9.5%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Cupa României
League table
Minaur Baia Mare
#66 ptsGP 22-0-08:1
CSM Satu Mare
#1020 ptsGP 10-0-10:5
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Minaur Baia Mare
W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 2.40 Conceded 1.37 xG 1.20 xGA 1.51
CSM Satu Mare
W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 3.72 Conceded 1.90 xG 1.91 xGA 0.88

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Minaur Baia Mare
71%
1.36
Draw
17%
5.60
CSM Satu Mare
12%
10.20
Handicap
Minaur Baia Mare (0)
66%
1.40
CSM Satu Mare (0)
34%
2.75
Total
Over 3.5
45%
2.20
Under 3.5
55%
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
53%
1.84
No
47%
2.00

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Minaur Baia Mare 2 : 1 CSM Satu Mare
11.19
X5.60
212.00

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket Cupa Romaniei 26/27, Qualification

Round 1
Victoria Traian0
ASC Unirea Branistea7
AS Usv Iasi1
Stiinta Miroslava0
ACS Recolta Gheorghe Doja0
I. Modelu6
Domnesti3
Unirea Bascov2
Csm Sacele6
ACS Kids Tampa Brasov5
CS Gloria Baneasa1
Dunarea Calarasi3
FC Pucioasa1
Tricolorul B0
Universitatea Alba Iulia3
ACS Cil Blaj4
CS Agigea2
Axiopolis Cernavoda3
Csm Caransebes2
Ghiroda1
Paulesti6
CS Blejoi2
ACS Oltul Curtisoara4
ACS Academica Bals2
Corona Brasov5
ACS Aro Muscelul C-Lung Muscel4
CS Gheorgheni1
Odorheiu Secuiesc0
Csl Hidro Mecanica Sugag 19840
Cugir10
ACS FC Chiesd1
Csm Sighetu Marmatiei4
Academia de Fotbal Bolintin-Vale3
ACS Axi Arena2
CS Bradul Putna9
Csm Bucovina Radauti0
AFC Inter Stars Sibiu0
ACS Medias 20222
Csm Ramnicu Sarat0
Csm Adjud 19463
Electrosid Titu1
ACS Vointa 2024 Crevedia3
CS Crisul Santandrei2
Unirea Tasnad1
Aerostar Bacau3
Csm FC Vaslui1
CS Timisul Sag1
ACS Progresul Pecica0
Unirea Dej1
Acad Viitorul Cluj2
ACS Unirea Dmo0
Petrosani4
CS Gilortul Targu Carbunesti1
Asfc Pausesti Otasau2
CS Bihorul Beius0
Lotus Baile Felix1
Csm Targu Jiu3
CS Vulturii Farcasesti2
U Craiova0
Acso Filiasi5
Scm Dunarea Giurgiu3
Alexandria0
FC Petrolul Berca5
Cso Teleajenul Valeni de Munte2
ACS Progresul Mogosoaia3
ACS LPS HD Clinceni0
Plopeni1
Cso Baicoi2
ACS Unirea Santana4
ACS Viitorul Arad0
Progresul Spartac2
ACS Progresul Fundulea0
Round 2
ASC Unirea Branistea2
Liesti4
CS Bradul Putna1
AS Usv Iasi2
Dunarea Calarasi2
I. Modelu0
Domnesti2
Asc Olimpic Zarnesti7
Corona Brasov3
Csm Sacele0
FC Pucioasa0
Csm Flacara Moreni7
ACS Cil Blaj2
ACS Medias 20221
Axiopolis Cernavoda1
Agricola Borcea3
Csm Caransebes4
Minerul L5
Paulesti0
Tunari3
Acso Filiasi7
ACS Oltul Curtisoara8
CS Gheorgheni5
Ceahlaul Piatra0
Cugir0
Petrosani1
Csm Sighetu Marmatiei1
Baia Mare3
Academia de Fotbal Bolintin-Vale1
Progresul Spartac3
Csm Adjud 19462
Targu Secuiesc1
ACS Progresul Mogosoaia3
ACS Vointa 2024 Crevedia0
Lotus Baile Felix3
CS Crisul Santandrei5
Aerostar Bacau0
AFC Viitorul Onesti1
CS Timisul Sag3
ACS Unirea Santana2
Acad Viitorul Cluj1
Scm Zalau6
Asfc Pausesti Otasau0
Csm Targu Jiu2
Scm Dunarea Giurgiu2
Cetatea Turnu Magurele1
FC Petrolul Berca2
Cso Baicoi3
Sanatatea Cluj7
CSM Unirea Alba Iulia6
Round 3
AS Usv Iasi1
Cetatea S0
Dunarea Calarasi0
Afumati3
ACS Cil Blaj1
Sanatatea Cluj0
ACS Oltul Curtisoara0
Slatina3
Corona Brasov3
Asc Olimpic Zarnesti1
CS Gheorgheni0
Targu Mures2
Csm Adjud 19462
Liesti4
CS Crisul Santandrei0
Oradea3
CS Timisul Sag1
Resita3
Petrosani0
Minerul L1
Csm Targu Jiu3
Scm Ramnicu Valcea4
Scm Dunarea Giurgiu0
Csa Steaua Bucuresti3
ACS Progresul Mogosoaia1
Concordia Chiajna4
Cso Baicoi2
Metalul Buzau4
Progresul Spartac2
Metaloglobus1
Tunari2
Csl Stefanestii de Jos1
Csm Flacara Moreni1
Chindia Targoviste2
AFC Viitorul Onesti0
FC Bacau3
Scm Zalau0
CS Gloria Bistrita1
Agricola Borcea1
AFC Unirea 04 Slobozia4
Baia Mare5
Csm Olimpia Satu Mare0
1599 Selimbar3
Hermannstadt0
Popesti Leordeni5
CS Dinamo Bucuresti0
Stinta Poli Timisoara1
Dumbravita0

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Start 12.08.2026 14:30 UTC
Market 1 72.7% @ 1.36 / X 17.6% @ 5.60 / 2 9.7% @ 10.20
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Minaur Baia Mare 73%
💹 Market Minaur Baia Mare 74%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Minaur Baia Mare - CSM Satu Mare

Minaur Baia Mare: win Minaur Baia Mare: draw CSM Satu Mare win: Obschiy Total goals Over : Obschiy Total goals Under : Individualnyy Total goals Minaur Baia Mare Over : Individualnyy Total goals Minaur Baia Mare Under : Individualnyy Total goals CSM Satu Mare Over …

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 5:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.2% fact: home hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.110 / LogLoss 0.312
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.2% fact: home hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.110 / LogLoss 0.312
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.2% fact: home hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.110 / LogLoss 0.312
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.2% fact: home hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.110 / LogLoss 0.312
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Minaur Baia Mare 73.8% 73.2% market and model agree
Draw 16.6% 16.7% draw risk
CSM Satu Mare 9.5% 10.1%
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 73.2% / 16.7% / 10.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,874 / 1,519 Baya Mare / Satu-Mare
RD 300 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,273-2,474 / 937-2,102 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.70 market consensus · no value · model 10.1%
X 5.28 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 73.2%
Double chance
12 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 83.3%
1X 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 89.9%
X2 3.05 market consensus · no value · model 26.8%
Handicap
2 +1 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.74 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.70 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.30 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.95 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.86 53.8%
yes 1.68 59.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.09 91.7% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9%
1x 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0% 1.07 93.5% 1.07 93.5%
x2 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.55 39.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.70 58.8%
X 2.70 37.0%
8.90 11.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.57 63.7%
Over 1.5 2.10 47.6%
Under 1 2.31 43.3%
Under 1.5 1.69 59.2%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-2-3, avg 3.33 gls
2026-08-12 · Baya Mare 5:0 Satu-Mare
2025-05-16 · Baya Mare 0:2 Satu-Mare
2025-04-26 · Baya Mare 1:1 Satu-Mare
2025-04-05 · Baya Mare 1:1 Satu-Mare
2024-12-07 · Baya Mare 2:0 Satu-Mare
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.52 (Winline) · X 4.9 (Pari) · 2 7.2 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.35 4.9 7.2
Winline 1.52 4.1 5
Fonbet 1.35 4.9 7.2
Betcity 1.34 4.8 6.9
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Minaur Baia Mare
W
05.08 14:30 UTC Romania: Cup Rumynii - Qualifying
Minaur Baia Mare 3:1 Sigetu Marmatey
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
CSM Satu Mare
D
05.08 15:00 UTC+0 Romania: Liga 2 Standings
CSM Satu Mare 1:1 Dumbrevitsa
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minaur Baia Mare vs CSM Satu Mare?

By the PropickAI model, Minaur Baia Mare is favoured — about 73% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Minaur Baia Mare vs CSM Satu Mare?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Minaur Baia Mare. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Minaur Baia Mare vs CSM Satu Mare start?

August 12, 2026.