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Serie A
Serie A Italy
22.02.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
22.02.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AC Milan - Parma

Italy Football
AC Milan
AC Milan
0 : 1
Finished
Parma
Parma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AC Milan - Parma February 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.36 / X 4.90 / 2 8.93
  • 1X2 market: AC Milan 69.9% / X 19.4% / Parma 10.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 69.9%
X 19.4%
2 10.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 52.9%
Under 2.5 47.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.02.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

AC Milan - Parma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.98 market consensus · line only
X 4.92 market consensus · line only
1 1.36 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.14 market consensus · line only
12 1.18 market consensus · line only
1X 1.07 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.16 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.38 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.69 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.10 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.36 73.5%
X 5.13 19.5%
9.70 10.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.44 69.4%
X 4.65 21.5% 4.90 20.4% 5.07 19.7% 4.60 21.7% 5.00 20.0% 4.90 20.4%
8.00 12.5% 9.80 10.2% 9.00 11.1% 8.50 11.8% 8.00 12.5% 8.00 12.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.66 60.2% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.09 47.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.09 47.9% 2.24 44.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.90 34.5% 3.14 31.9% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.95 33.9% 3.25 30.8%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.06 94.3% 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1% 1.05 95.2%
Match center
AC Milan
D W W D W
18.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:1 ComoComo
13.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:1 PisaPisa
03.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:0 BolognaBologna
25.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:1 AS RomaAS Roma
18.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 LecceLecce
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Parma
W W L L D
15.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 2:1 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
08.02 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:0 BolognaBologna
01.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:4 JuventusJuventus
25.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:4 AtalantaAtalanta
18.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:0 GenoaGenoa
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAC Milan - Parma

AC Milan
1 matches total
Parma
AC Milan: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Parma: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 08.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (08.11 19:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

08.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan
2:2
Parma