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Serie A
Serie A Italy
25.01.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
25.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AS Roma - AC Milan

Italy Football
AS Roma
AS Roma
1 : 1
Finished
AC Milan
AC Milan

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AS Roma - AC Milan January 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Line favourite market consensus: AS Roma. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.76 / X 2.98 / 2 2.83
  • 1X2 market: AS Roma 34.5% / X 31.9% / AC Milan 33.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 34.5%
X 31.9%
2 33.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 43.8%
Under 2.5 56.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

AS Roma - AC Milan

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.83 market consensus · line only
X 2.98 market consensus · line only
1 2.76 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.45 market consensus · line only
12 1.39 market consensus · line only
1X 1.44 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.87 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.18 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.95 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.83 35.3%
X 3.03 33.0%
2.91 34.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.74 36.5% 2.75 36.4% 2.87 34.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.80 35.7% 2.80 35.7%
X 2.94 34.0% 3.00 33.3% 3.06 32.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7% 3.00 33.3%
2.74 36.5% 2.89 34.6% 2.94 34.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.88 34.7% 2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.87 53.5% 1.89 52.9% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.79 55.9% 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.47 68.0%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.37 73.0% 1.42 70.4%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.45 69.0%
Match center
AS Roma
W W W L W
18.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 TorinoTorino
10.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 SassuoloSassuolo
06.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 LecceLecce
03.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
29.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 3:1 GenoaGenoa
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.4 Conceded
12 Points
AC Milan
W W D D W
18.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 LecceLecce
15.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:1 ComoComo
11.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
08.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:1 GenoaGenoa
02.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 CagliariCagliari
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAS Roma - AC Milan

AS Roma
2 matches total
AC Milan
AS Roma: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AC Milan: 1 (50%)
Biggest win AS Roma 3:1 (18.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 18.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

02.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma
0:1
AC Milan
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma
3:1
AC Milan