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Serie A Italy

22.03.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

22.03.2026 17:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

AS Roma - Lecce

Italy Football

Referee Juan Luca Sacchi

AS Roma

1 : 0

Finished

Lecce

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 AS Roma — 59%

1 · AS Roma ✓ Pick58.8%

market65%

X · draw24.2%

market23%

2 · Lecce17.0%

market12%

Model estimate: win AS Roma 58.8%, draw 24.2%, win Lecce 17.0%. Model favourite — AS Roma.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AS Roma - Lecce March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Strongest: AS Roma - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 4.16 / 2 7.78
1X2 market: AS Roma 65.1% / X 22.7% / Lecce 12.2%
Glicko: AS Roma 58.8% / X 24.2% / Lecce 17.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 40.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 ✓ Pick 65.1%

X 22.7%

2 12.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 48.7%

Under 2.5 51.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 62.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 22.03.2026 17:00 UTC

Referee Juan Luca Sacchi

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model AS Roma 59%

💹 Market AS Roma 6512%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

AS Roma - Lecce

AS Roma: Win 1.47 AS Roma: Draw 4.17 Lecce Win: 8.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.04 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.87 Individualnyy total golov AS Roma bolshe 1.5: 1.68 Individualnyy total golov AS Roma menshe 1.5: 2.26 Individualnyy total golov Lecce bolshe 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 41

min Event Player Team

46' 46' Substitution 1 | G. Mancini | assist/sub out: D. Ghilardi Zhanzhan L./Ponshe Dzh. AS Roma

51' 51' Substitution 2 | N. El Aynaoui | assist/sub out: R. Vaz AS Roma

57' 57' Normal Goal | R. Vaz AS Roma

61' 61' Substitution 1 | O. Gandelman | assist/sub out: S. Fofana Lecce

61' 61' Substitution 2 | N. Štulić | assist/sub out: W. Cheddira Lecce

67' 67' Substitution 3 | L. Banda | assist/sub out: K. N’Dri Lecce

75' 75' Substitution 3 | K. Tsimikas | assist/sub out: AngeliG±o N. Leali AS Roma

75' 75' Substitution 4 | D. Malen | assist/sub out: A. Arena AS Roma

Metric AS Roma Lecce SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.83 1.03 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 2 final

Shots off target 7 3 final

Shots on target 2 3 final

Udary vsego 14 8 final

Fouls soversheno 14 17 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final

Offsides 5 0 final

AS Roma #2 Devyne Rensch, #4 B. Cristante, #5 E. Ndicka, #8 N. El Aynaoui, #12 K. Tsimikas, #14 Donyell Malen, #22 Mario Hermoso, #23 G. Mancini, #61 N. Pisilli, #99 Mile Svilar

Lecce #5 J. Siebert, #9 N. Stulic, #16 O. Gandelman, #17 Danilo Veiga, #19 Lameck Banda, #20 Y. Ramadani, #25 Antonino Gallo, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #79 O. Ngom

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Sala Lecce football.player.assists 0

A. Sala Lecce Dribling popytki 1

A. Sala Lecce Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Sala Lecce Fouls soversheno 1

A. Sala Lecce Seyvy 0

A. Sala Lecce football.player.minutes_played 9

A. Sala Lecce Klyuchevye pasy 2

A. Sala Lecce Reyting (staryy) 6.6

A. Sala Lecce Otbory vsego 2

Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

AS Roma 65.4% 58.8% market and model agree

Draw 23.0% 24.2% draw risk

Lecce 11.6% 17.0%

xG - 1.66 : 0.76

Total 2.5 Over 40.2% - Under 59.8%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 58.8% / 24.2% / 17.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,614 / 1,444 AS Roma / Lecce

RD 75 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.83 market consensus · no value · model 17.0%

X 4.18 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 58.8%

Double chance

X2 2.70 market consensus · no value · model 41.2%

12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.8%

1X 1.09 market consensus · no value · model 83.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.72 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.09 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.50 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 40.2%

Under 2.5 1.86 market consensus · value +11.2% · model 59.8%

Both teams to score

No 1.68 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.13 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.43 69.9%
X	4.48 22.3%
	8.44 11.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.43 69.9%	1.45 69.0%	1.52 65.8%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%
X	4.10 24.4%	4.30 23.3%	4.28 23.4%	4.00 25.0%	4.20 23.8%	4.10 24.4%
	7.70 13.0%	7.70 13.0%	8.05 12.4%	7.00 14.3%	8.00 12.5%	7.70 13.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.70 58.8%	1.64 61.0%	1.66 60.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%
yes	2.10 47.6%	2.28 43.9%	2.11 47.4%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.11 47.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.75 36.4%	2.72 36.8%	2.60 38.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.72 36.8%	2.70 37.0%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.26 79.4%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.07 93.5%	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%	1.08 92.6%	1.11 90.1%	1.06 94.3%

Match center

AS Roma

Founded 1927

Lecce

Founded 1908

Match center

AS Roma

PD P. Dybala Knee Injury

AD A. Dovbyk Groin Injury

Lecce

LC L. Coulibaly Injury

RS R. Sottil Back Injury

AS Roma Founded: 1927

Lecce Founded: 1908

Match center

AS Roma

L L D W D

15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:2 Como

08.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:2 Genoa

01.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 3:3 Juventus

22.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 3:0 Cremonese

15.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 2:2 Napoli

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.8 Conceded

5 Points

Lecce

L W L L W

14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 1:2 Napoli

08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:1 Cremonese

28.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 1:3 Como

21.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:2 Inter

16.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:0 Cagliari

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAS Roma - Lecce

AS Roma

1 matches total

Lecce

AS Roma: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Lecce: 0 (0%)

Biggest win AS Roma 2:0 (06.01 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 06.01 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

06.01 17:00 UTC

Serie A

AS Roma

2:0

Lecce

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.