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Serie A
Serie A Italy
30.11.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
30.11.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AS Roma - Napoli

Italy Football
AS Roma
AS Roma
0 : 1
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AS Roma - Napoli November 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Line favourite market consensus: AS Roma. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.69 / X 2.87 / 2 3.04
  • 1X2 market: AS Roma 35.5% / X 33.2% / Napoli 31.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 35.4%
X 33.2%
2 31.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 36.3%
Under 2.5 63.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.11.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

AS Roma - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.05 market consensus · line only
X 2.88 market consensus · line only
1 2.69 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.49 market consensus · line only
12 1.41 market consensus · line only
1X 1.38 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.00 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.85 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.62 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.71 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.07 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.77 36.1%
X 2.92 34.3%
3.09 32.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.68 37.3% 2.72 36.8% 2.76 36.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.72 36.8%
X 2.84 35.2% 2.95 33.9% 2.99 33.4% 2.75 36.4% 2.88 34.7% 2.82 35.5%
2.98 33.6% 3.00 33.3% 3.14 31.9% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.75 57.1%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.12 47.2% 2.06 48.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.06 48.5% 2.17 46.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.45 69.0% 1.51 66.2% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.36 73.5% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_draw 1.38 72.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4%
Match center
AS Roma
W W L W W
23.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 3:1 CremoneseCremonese
09.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 UdineseUdinese
02.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
29.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:1 ParmaParma
26.10 14:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 SassuoloSassuolo
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Napoli
W L D W W
22.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 AtalantaAtalanta
09.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:2 BolognaBologna
01.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ComoComo
28.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 LecceLecce
25.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 InterInter
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAS Roma - Napoli

AS Roma
0 matches total
Napoli
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history