AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Atalanta. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
31.08.2026 18:45 UTC
Serie A
Atalanta face Bologna in football, in Serie A, on 31 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Atalanta as the favourite at around 55%. The bookmaker consensus (1 book) implies about 51% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 21%.
Recent form reads: Atalanta have 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost of their last 5; Bologna have 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost of 5. Atalanta arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Atalanta 1645, Bologna 1525, a gap of 120 points. Across 3 recent head-to-head meetings between them, the full record is shown below on this page.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 4-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 120 Glicko rating points, the model's 55% for Atalanta. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Atalanta — 55%
Model estimate: win Atalanta 55.1%, draw 20.8%, win Bologna 24.1%. Model favourite — Atalanta.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Double chance — Atalanta or draw 1.25
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Injuries and absencesSource: sstats_content
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.97 50.8% | 1.98 50.5% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% | 1.74 57.5% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.25 80.0% |
| x2 | 1.92 52.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.50 40.0% | |
| X | 2.20 45.5% |
| 4.46 22.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.79 55.9% |
| Under 1 | 1.91 52.4% |
Atalanta
Bologna
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.82 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Winline | 1.79 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Fonbet | 1.82 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Betcity | 1.85 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.75 | 3.85 | 4.3 |
Atalanta
Bologna
Full head-to-head history: Atalanta - Bologna
Seriya A
Seriya A
The Atalanta - Bologna breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Atalanta. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Atalanta vs Bologna from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 31, 2026.
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