AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Udinese. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
29.08.2026 16:30 UTC
Serie A
Monza take on Udinese in football, in Serie A, on 29 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Udinese the favourite, with a win probability of about 50%. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 39%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 21%.
Latest form: Monza 1 won, 0 drawn and 4 lost; Udinese 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1295 for Monza against 1570 for Udinese - a gap of 276 points. Across 1 recent head-to-head meeting between them, the full record is shown below on this page.
Our model is a touch more confident in the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 11-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 276 Glicko rating points, the model's 50% for Udinese. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Udinese — 50%
Model estimate: win Monza 28.9%, draw 21.0%, win Udinese 50.1%. Model favourite — Udinese.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Double chance — Udinese or draw 1.38
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 1.88 53.2% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.38 72.5% |
| 1x | 1.60 62.5% |
| x2 | 1.38 72.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.84 26.0% | |
| X | 2.01 49.8% |
| 3.10 32.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.13 47.0% |
| Under 1 | 1.64 61.0% |
Monza
Udinese
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.25 |
| Winline | 3.35 | 3.2 | 2.28 |
| Fonbet | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.25 |
| Betcity | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.32 |
| Liga Stavok | 3.45 | 3.25 | 2.2 |
Monza
Udinese
Full head-to-head history: Monza - Udinese
Seriya A
The Monza - Udinese breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Udinese. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Monza vs Udinese from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 29, 2026.
Match markets