Serie A Italy

35-й тур 02.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 18:45 UTC 35-й тур

Finished

Serie A

Atalanta - Genoa

Italy Futbol

Stadium Gewiss Stadium

Referee I. Pezzuto

Capacity 21 300

Atalanta

0 : 0

Finished

Genoa

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atalanta — 58%

1 · Atalanta ✓ Прогноз57.7%

X · draw24.4%

2 · Genoa17.9%

Model estimate: win Atalanta 57.7%, draw 24.4%, win Genoa 17.9%. Model favourite — Atalanta.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Genoa 2 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Strongest: Atalanta - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.51 / X 4.27 / 2 6.14
1X2 market: Atalanta 62.4% / X 22.2% / Genoa 15.5%
Glicko: Atalanta 57.7% / X 24.4% / Genoa 17.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 27.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 ✓ Прогноз 62.5%

X 22.1%

2 15.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 54.8%

Under 2.5 45.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 60.1%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Stadium Джевисс — Атлети Адзурри д’Италия (Бергамо, Италия), 22 861 зритель (95% при вместимости 24 000)

Referee Ивано Пеццуто (Италия)

Start 02.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Capacity 21,300

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Atalanta 58%

💹 Market Atalanta 6238%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Atalanta - Genoa

Итоговый протокол и результаты встречи Аталанта - Дженоа, 2 мая 2026. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. Чемпионат Италии по футболу (Серия A) 2025-2026, 35-й тур. Аталанта - Дженоа, кто победил, онлайн трансляция матча.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 13

Statistics 24

Lineups 91

min Event Player Team

19' 19' Yellow Card | Amorim Alexsandro Amorim Genoa

56' 56' Substitution 1 | Lorenzo Colombo | assist/sub out: Caleb Ekuban L. Colombo Genoa

57' 57' Substitution 1 | G. Scamacca | assist/sub out: G. Raspadori G. Scamacca Atalanta

57' 57' Substitution 2 | Berat Djimsiti | assist/sub out: I. Hien B. Djimsiti Atalanta

64' 64' Yellow Card | Éderson Ederson Atalanta

69' 69' Substitution 2 | Amorim | assist/sub out: Junior Messias Alexsandro Amorim Genoa

70' 70' Substitution 3 | Jeff Ekhator | assist/sub out: Ruslan Malinovskyi J. Ekhator Genoa

76' 76' Substitution 3 | C. De Ketelaere | assist/sub out: L. Samardzic C. De Ketelaere Atalanta

Metric Atalanta Genoa SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.96 0.52 final

Заблокированные удары 6 2 final

Удары мимо 8 3 final

Удары в створ 7 2 final

Удары всего 21 7 final

Фолы совершено 14 10 final

Желтые карточки 2 1 final

Офсайды 1 0 final

Atalanta #4 Alexsandro Amorim, #5 L. Ostigard, #9 Vítinha, #16 J. Bijlow, #20 S. Sabelli, #21 J. Ekhator, #22 J. Vasquez, #27 A. Marcandalli, #29 L. Colombo, #32 M. Frendrup, #77 M. Ellertsson

Genoa #9 G. Scamacca, #15 Marten de Roon, #17 C. De Ketelaere, #19 B. Djimsiti, #29 M. Carnesecchi, #42 G. Scalvini, #59 N. Zalewski, #69 H. Ahanor, #77 D. Zappacosta, #90 N. Krstović, #16 J. Bijlow

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Marcandalli Genoa football.player.minutes_played 94

Aarón Martín Genoa football.player.minutes_played 8

Alexsandro Amorim Genoa football.player.minutes_played 69

B. Djimsiti Genoa Дриблинг попытки 7

B. Djimsiti Genoa Единоборства всего 2

B. Djimsiti Genoa Единоборства выиграно 10

B. Djimsiti Genoa Фолы совершено 1

B. Djimsiti Genoa Сейвы 0

B. Djimsiti Genoa Ключевые пасы 26

B. Djimsiti Genoa Рейтинг (старый) 7.2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atalanta 62.1% 57.7% market and model agree

Draw 22.6% 24.4% draw risk

Genoa 15.3% 17.9%

xG - 1.64 : 0.79

Total 2.5 Over 27.5% - Under 72.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 57.7% / 24.4% / 17.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,595 / 1,488 Atalanta / Genoa

RD 72 / 71 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.14 market consensus · no value · model 17.9%

X 4.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 57.7%

Double chance

X2 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%

12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.54 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.99 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.55 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 27.5%

Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · weak value +53.0% · model 72.5%

Both teams to score

No 1.93 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	1.49 67.1%	1.56 64.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.50 66.7%
Х	4.10 24.4%	4.50 22.2%	4.00 25.0%	4.33 23.1%	4.45 22.5%	4.20 23.8%
П2	6.25 16.0%	6.49 15.4%	5.75 17.4%	6.25 16.0%	6.50 15.4%	6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.92 52.1%
yes	1.83 54.6%	1.81 55.3%	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.50 40.0%	2.59 38.6%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.57 38.9%	2.50 40.0%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.11 90.1%	1.15 87.0%	1.13 88.5%	1.12 89.3%	1.14 87.7%	1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.25	—	1.11 90.1%
ТБ 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.21 82.6%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.27 78.7%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.32 75.8%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.60 62.5%
ТБ 2.5	1.75 57.1%	—
ТБ 3.5	2.85 35.1%	—
ТБ 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—
ТМ 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
ТМ 1.5	3.90 25.6%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.05 48.8%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—

Match center

Atalanta

Founded 1907

Genoa

Founded 1893

Match center

Atalanta

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Genoa

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Лоренцо Бернаскони Травмированные Томмазо Бальданци

Atalanta Founded: 1907

Genoa Founded: 1893

Match center

Atalanta

L D L W W

27.04 16:30 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 2:3 Cagliari

18.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:1 AS Roma

11.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 0:1 Juventus

06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 3:0 Lecce

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:0 Hellas Verona

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Genoa

L W W L L

26.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:2 Como

19.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:1 Pisa

12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:1 Sassuolo

06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:2 Juventus

20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:2 Udinese

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Genoa

Atalanta

3 matches total

Genoa

Atalanta: 3 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Genoa: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Atalanta 5:1 (05.10 16:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (5:1, 05.10 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

9 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 9

Match history

21.12 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Atalanta

1:0

Genoa

17.05 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Atalanta

3:2

Genoa

05.10 16:00 UTC

Serie A

Atalanta

5:1

Genoa

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Atalanta

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Genoa

34 Игры 34

14 Победы 10

12 Ничьи 9

8 Поражения 15

47 Забито 40

32 Пропущено 48

54 Очки 39

101.03 Атаки 90.12

52.6 Опасные атаки 37.15

0 Голевые моменты 0

14.32 Удары по воротам 11.24

4.5 Удары в створ 3.88

Соотношение статистических данных команд Аталанта Дженоа 34 Игры 34 14 Победы 10 12 Ничьи 9 8 Поражения 15 47 Забито 40 32 Пропущено 48 54 Очки 39 101.03 Атаки 90.12 52.6 Опасные атаки 37.15 0 Голевые моменты 0 14.32 Удары по воротам 11.24 4.5 Удары в створ 3.88 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 5.94 Угловые 3.68 1.97 Оффсайды 1

Аталанта Дженоа 34 Игры 34 14 Победы 10 12 Ничьи 9 8 Поражения 15 47 Забито 40 32 Пропущено 48 54 Очки 39 101.03 Атаки 90.12 52.6 Опасные атаки 37.15 0 Голевые моменты 0 14.32 Удары по воротам 11.24 4.5 Удары в створ 3.88 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 5.94 Угловые 3.68 1.97 Оффсайды 1.32 11.41 Фолы 12.62 55.41 % владения мячом 48.06 1.5 Предупреждения 1.74 0.06 Удаления 0.09 Наказания Аморим 19' Эдерсон 64' Никола Крстович 78'