Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Genoa?

By the PropickAI model, Atalanta is favoured — about 58% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Atalanta vs Genoa?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Atalanta. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Atalanta vs Genoa?

Live odds for Atalanta vs Genoa from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Atalanta win probability ~58% confidence Medium best odds 1.51

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Atalanta. Full breakdown below.

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Serie A Italy

35 round

02.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

02.05.2026 18:45 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

Atalanta vs Genoa — Football prediction

Italy Football

Stadium Gewiss Stadium

Referee I. Pezzuto

Capacity 21 300

Atalanta

0 : 0

Finished

Genoa

Atalanta face Genoa on May 2, 2026 in the Serie A, Italy.

Recent form (W-D-L): Atalanta 2-1-2, Genoa 2-0-3. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The market favourite is Atalanta at roughly 62%. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 58% to win — below the market read. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atalanta — 58%

1 · Atalanta ✓ Pick57.7%

X · draw24.4%

2 · Genoa17.9%

Model estimate: win Atalanta 57.7%, draw 24.4%, win Genoa 17.9%. Model favourite — Atalanta.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Double chance — Atalanta or draw 1.13

Model confidence 84% ~82% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Genoa May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Strongest: Atalanta - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.51 / X 4.27 / 2 6.14
1X2 market: Atalanta 62.4% / X 22.2% / Genoa 15.5%
Glicko: Atalanta 57.7% / X 24.4% / Genoa 17.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 27.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9% 13 books · best price +4.0%

1 ✓ Pick 62.8%

X 22.2%

2 15.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 54.8%

Under 2.5 45.2%

Odds source: consensus of 13 books (10Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 60.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Dzheviss — Atleti Adzurri d’Italy (Bergamo, Italy), 22 861 zritel (95% pri vmestimosti 24 000)

Referee Ivano Petstsuto

Start 02.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Market 1 62.5% @ 1.51 / X 22.1% @ 4.27 / 2 15.4% @ 6.14

Capacity 21,300

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Atalanta 58%

💹 Market Atalanta 63%

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Match center

Atalanta - Genoa

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Atalanta - Dzhenoa, 2 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35-y Round. Atalanta - Dzhenoa, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 13

Statistics 24

Lineups 91

min Event Player Team

19' 19' Yellow Card | Amorim Alexsandro Amorim Dzhenoa

56' 56' Substitution 1 | Lorenzo Colombo | assist/sub out: Caleb Ekuban L. Colombo Dzhenoa

57' 57' Substitution 1 | G. Scamacca | assist/sub out: G. Raspadori G. Scamacca Atalanta

57' 57' Substitution 2 | Berat Djimsiti | assist/sub out: I. Hien B. Djimsiti Atalanta

64' 64' Yellow Card | Éderson Ederson Atalanta

69' 69' Substitution 2 | Amorim | assist/sub out: Junior Messias Alexsandro Amorim Dzhenoa

70' 70' Substitution 3 | Jeff Ekhator | assist/sub out: Ruslan Malinovskyi J. Ekhator Dzhenoa

76' 76' Substitution 3 | C. De Ketelaere | assist/sub out: L. Samardzic C. De Ketelaere Atalanta

Metric Atalanta Genoa SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.96 0.52 final

Zablokirovannye udary 6 2 final

Shots off target 8 3 final

Shots on target 7 2 final

Udary vsego 21 7 final

Fouls soversheno 14 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Atalanta #4 Alexsandro Amorim, #5 L. Ostigard, #9 Vítinha, #16 J. Bijlow, #20 S. Sabelli, #21 J. Ekhator, #22 J. Vasquez, #27 A. Marcandalli, #29 L. Colombo, #32 M. Frendrup, #77 M. Ellertsson

Genoa #9 G. Scamacca, #15 Marten de Roon, #17 C. De Ketelaere, #19 B. Djimsiti, #29 M. Carnesecchi, #42 G. Scalvini, #59 N. Zalewski, #69 H. Ahanor, #77 D. Zappacosta, #90 N. Krstović, #16 J. Bijlow

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Marcandalli Dzhenoa football.player.minutes_played 94

Aarón Martín Dzhenoa football.player.minutes_played 8

Alexsandro Amorim Dzhenoa football.player.minutes_played 69

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Dribling popytki 7

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Edinoborstva vsego 2

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Edinoborstva vyigrano 10

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Fouls soversheno 1

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Seyvy 0

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Klyuchevye pasy 26

B. Djimsiti Dzhenoa Reyting (staryy) 7.2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atalanta 62.1% 57.7% market and model agree

Draw 22.6% 24.4% draw risk

Genoa 15.3% 17.9%

xG - 1.64 : 0.79

Total 2.5 Over 27.5% - Under 72.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 57.7% / 24.4% / 17.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,595 / 1,488 Atalanta / Genoa

RD 72 / 71 rating uncertainty

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.14 market consensus · no value · model 17.9%

X 4.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 57.7%

Double chance

X2 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%

12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.54 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.99 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.55 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 27.5%

Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · weak value +53.0% · model 72.5%

Both teams to score

No 1.93 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.49 67.1%	1.56 64.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.50 66.7%
X	4.10 24.4%	4.50 22.2%	4.00 25.0%	4.33 23.1%	4.45 22.5%	4.20 23.8%
	6.25 16.0%	6.49 15.4%	5.75 17.4%	6.25 16.0%	6.50 15.4%	6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.92 52.1%
yes	1.83 54.6%	1.81 55.3%	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.50 40.0%	2.59 38.6%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.57 38.9%	2.50 40.0%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.11 90.1%	1.15 87.0%	1.13 88.5%	1.12 89.3%	1.14 87.7%	1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.25	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 2.5	1.75 57.1%	—
Over 3.5	2.85 35.1%	—
Over 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	3.90 25.6%	—
Under 2.5	2.05 48.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—
Under 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—

Match center

Atalanta

Founded 1907

Genoa

Founded 1893

Match center

Atalanta

LB Lorentso Bernaskoni pz

Genoa

Over Tommazo Baldantsi pz

Atalanta Founded: 1907

Genoa Founded: 1893

Match center

Atalanta

L D L W W

27.04 16:30 UTC Seriya A

Atalanta 2:3 Kalyari

18.04 18:45 UTC Seriya A

Atalanta 1:1 Roma

11.04 18:45 UTC Seriya A

Atalanta 0:1 Yuventus

06.04 13:00 UTC Seriya A

Atalanta 3:0 Lechche

22.03 14:00 UTC Seriya A

Atalanta 1:0 Hellas Verona

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Genoa

L W W L L

26.04 13:00 UTC Seriya A

Genoa 0:2 Komo

19.04 16:00 UTC Seriya A

Genoa 2:1 Pisa

12.04 10:30 UTC Seriya A

Genoa 2:1 Sassuolo

06.04 16:00 UTC Seriya A

Genoa 0:2 Yuventus

20.03 19:45 UTC Seriya A

Genoa 0:2 Udineze

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Atalanta - Genoa

Atalanta

3 matches total

Genoa

Atalanta: 3 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Genoa: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Atalanta 5:1 (05.10 16:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (5:1, 05.10 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

9 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 9

Match history

21.12 19:45 UTC

Seriya A

Atalanta

1:0

Dzhenoa

17.05 18:45 UTC

Seriya A

Atalanta

3:2

Dzhenoa

05.10 16:00 UTC

Seriya A

Atalanta

5:1

Dzhenoa

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Atalanta

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Genoa

34 Games 34

14 Wins 10

12 Draws 9

8 Losses 15

47 Scored 40

32 Conceded 48

54 Points 39

101.03 Attacks 90.12

52.6 Dangerous attacks 37.15

0 Big chances 0

14.32 Shots on goal 11.24

4.5 Shots on target 3.88

Sootnoshenie statisticheskikh dannykh komand Atalanta Dzhenoa 34 Games 34 14 Wins 10 12 Draws 9 8 Losses 15 47 Scored 40 32 Conceded 48 54 Points 39 101.03 Attacks 90.12 52.6 Dangerous attacks 37.15 0 Big chances 0 14.32 Shots on goal 11.24 4.5 Udary v stvor 3.88 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.94 Uglovye 3.68 1.97 Offsaydy 1

Atalanta Dzhenoa 34 Games 34 14 Wins 10 12 Draws 9 8 Losses 15 47 Scored 40 32 Conceded 48 54 Points 39 101.03 Attacks 90.12 52.6 Dangerous attacks 37.15 0 Big chances 0 14.32 Shots on goal 11.24 4.5 Udary v stvor 3.88 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.94 Uglovye 3.68 1.97 Offsaydy 1.32 11.41 Foly 12.62 55.41 % vladeniya myachom 48.06 1.5 Warnings 1.74 0.06 Sendoffs 0.09 Nakazaniya Amorim 19' Ederson 64' Nikola Krstovich 78'

Atalanta vs Genoa — Football prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Genoa May 2, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

AI outcome leader: 1

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Atalanta - Genoa

Match markets

Match Winner

Both teams to score

Double chance

Goals Over/Under

Overall statistics

Match history

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