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Serie A
Serie A Italy
19.10.2025 16:00 UTC Match prediction
19.10.2025 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - Lazio

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
0 : 0
Finished
Lazio
Lazio

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Lazio October 19, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.83 / X 3.70 / 2 4.33
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 52.1% / X 25.8% / Lazio 22.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 52.2%
X 25.8%
2 22.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 50.8%
Under 2.5 49.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 19.10.2025 16:00 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - Lazio

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.33 market consensus · line only
X 3.71 market consensus · line only
1 1.83 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.00 market consensus · line only
12 1.28 market consensus · line only
1X 1.23 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.53 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.11 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.95 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.86 53.8%
X 3.75 26.7%
4.37 22.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8% 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.86 25.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3%
4.20 23.8% 4.25 23.5% 4.57 21.9% 4.20 23.8% 4.10 24.4% 4.35 23.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% 1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.09 47.9%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.76 56.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.93 51.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 2.04 49.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.23 81.3%
Match center
Atalanta
D D W W D
04.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 ComoComo
27.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 JuventusJuventus
21.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 3:0 TorinoTorino
14.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 4:1 LecceLecce
30.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 ParmaParma
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Lazio
D W L L W
04.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 3:3 TorinoTorino
29.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 3:0 GenoaGenoa
21.09 10:30 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
14.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 SassuoloSassuolo
31.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 4:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Lazio

Atalanta
1 matches total
Lazio
Atalanta: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lazio: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lazio 0:1 (06.04 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 06.04 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
0:1
Lazio