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Serie A
Serie A Italy
22.02.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
22.02.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - Napoli

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
2 : 1
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Napoli February 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.46 / X 3.01 / 2 3.17
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 38.6% / X 31.5% / Napoli 29.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 38.6%
X 31.5%
2 29.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 43.4%
Under 2.5 56.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.02.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.18 market consensus · line only
X 3.02 market consensus · line only
1 2.46 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.55 market consensus · line only
12 1.37 market consensus · line only
1X 1.36 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.12 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.92 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.20 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.92 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.50 40.0%
X 3.09 32.4%
3.29 30.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.34 42.7% 2.47 40.5% 2.53 39.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7%
X 2.98 33.6% 3.05 32.8% 3.18 31.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8%
3.25 30.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.28 30.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 2.03 49.3%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4%
Match center
Atalanta
W W D W D
14.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 LazioLazio
09.02 17:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:1 CremoneseCremonese
01.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:0 ComoComo
25.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 4:0 ParmaParma
16.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 PisaPisa
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Napoli
D W W L W
15.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 AS RomaAS Roma
07.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:2 GenoaGenoa
31.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
25.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:3 JuventusJuventus
17.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 SassuoloSassuolo
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Napoli

Atalanta
1 matches total
Napoli
Atalanta: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Napoli 1:3 (22.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 22.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

22.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
1:3
Napoli