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Serie A
Serie A Italy
25.01.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
25.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - Parma

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
4 : 0
Finished
Parma
Parma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Parma January 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.41 / X 4.65 / 2 7.86
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 67.5% / X 20.4% / Parma 12.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 67.4%
X 20.5%
2 12.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 53.9%
Under 2.5 46.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - Parma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.90 market consensus · line only
X 4.67 market consensus · line only
1 1.41 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.91 market consensus · line only
12 1.20 market consensus · line only
1X 1.09 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.93 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.24 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.57 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.07 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.80 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.96 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.40 71.4%
X 4.93 20.3%
8.43 11.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4%
X 4.55 22.0% 4.80 20.8% 4.80 20.8% 4.33 23.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5%
7.50 13.3% 8.20 12.2% 8.05 12.4% 7.00 14.3% 8.00 12.5% 8.50 11.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.77 56.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.82 55.0%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.96 51.0% 2.06 48.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.85 35.1% 2.92 34.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.62 38.2% 2.92 34.3% 2.96 33.8%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Atalanta
D W W W L
16.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 PisaPisa
10.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 TorinoTorino
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 BolognaBologna
03.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:0 AS RomaAS Roma
28.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 InterInter
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
10 Points
Parma
D D W L D
18.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:0 GenoaGenoa
14.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:0 NapoliNapoli
11.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 2:1 LecceLecce
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:2 InterInter
03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:1 SassuoloSassuolo
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Parma

Atalanta
2 matches total
Parma
Atalanta: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Parma: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Parma 2:3 (25.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 25.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (30.08 16:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 3

Match history

30.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
1:1
Parma
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
2:3
Parma