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Serie A Italy

35 round 03.05.2026 10:30 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

03.05.2026 10:30 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

Bologna - Cagliari

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Referee V. Crezzini

Capacity 39 279

Bologna

0 : 0

Finished

Cagliari

Bologna face Cagliari on May 3, 2026 in the Serie A, Italy.

Recent form (W-D-L): Bologna 2-0-3, Cagliari 2-0-3. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Bologna the favourite at about 50%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 52% to win — broadly in line with the market. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bologna — 52%

1 · Bologna52.2%

X · draw26.6%

2 · Cagliari21.2%

Model estimate: win Bologna 52.2%, draw 26.6%, win Cagliari 21.2%. Model favourite — Bologna.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bologna - Cagliari May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Strongest: Bologna - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.90 / X 3.33 / 2 4.39
1X2 market: Bologna 49.9% / X 28.5% / Cagliari 21.6%
Glicko: Bologna 52.2% / X 26.6% / Cagliari 21.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 39.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 49.9%

X 28.5%

2 21.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 44.0%

Under 2.5 56.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Silnyy Result AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 6/6

Confidence 63.2%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Renato Dall'Ara (Bolonya, Italy), 28 416 zriteley (72% pri vmestimosti 39 279)

Referee Valerio Kretstsini

Start 03.05.2026 10:30 UTC

Market 1 49.9% @ 1.90 / X 28.5% @ 3.33 / 2 21.6% @ 4.39

Capacity 39,279

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Bologna 52%

💹 Market Bologna 4992%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Bologna - Cagliari

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Bolonya - Kalyari, 3 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35-y Round. Bolonya - Kalyari, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 11

Statistics 24

Lineups 85

min Event Player Team

42' 42' Substitution 1 | A. Deiola | assist/sub out: I. Sulemana A. Deiola Cagliari

46' 46' Substitution 1 | S. Sohm | assist/sub out: J. Rowe S. Sohm Bologna

52' 52' Yellow Card | M. Adopo M. Adopo Cagliari

63' 63' Substitution 2 | J. Odgaard | assist/sub out: S. Castro J. Odgaard Bologna

63' 63' Substitution 3 | B. Domínguez | assist/sub out: R. Orsolini B. Domínguez Bologna

68' 68' Yellow Card | E. Helland E. Helland Bologna

73' 73' Substitution 2 | S. Esposito | assist/sub out: P. Mendy S. Esposito Cagliari

78' 78' Substitution 4 | F. Bernardeschi | assist/sub out: L. Ferguson F. Bernardeschi Bologna

Metric Bologna Cagliari SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.53 1.07 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 3 final

Shots off target 5 3 final

Shots on target 4 2 final

Udary vsego 13 8 final

Fouls soversheno 13 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final

Offsides 3 5 final

Bologna #1 E. Caprile, #2 M. Palestra, #8 M. Adopo, #10 G. Gaetano, #14 A. Deiola, #22 Alberto Dossena, #26 Y. Mina, #32 Zé Pedro, #33 A. Obert, #90 M. Folorunsho, #94 S. Esposito

Cagliari #5 E. Helland, #6 N. Moro, #8 R. Freuler, #10 F. Bernardeschi, #21 J. Odgaard, #23 S. Sohm, #25 M. Pessina, #26 J. Lucumi, #29 L. De Silvestri, #30 B. Domínguez, #33 Juan Miranda

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Albarracín Bologna Seyvy 0

A. Belotti Bologna Seyvy 0

A. Deiola Bologna Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

A. Deiola Bologna Conceded golov 3

A. Deiola Bologna Seyvy 0

A. Deiola Bologna Klyuchevye pasy 9

A. Deiola Bologna Reyting (staryy) 6.5

A. Deiola Bologna Shots on target 1

A. Deiola Bologna Otbory vsego 6

A. Deiola Bologna Yellow cards 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Bologna 52.1% 52.2% market and model agree

Draw 27.5% 26.6% draw risk

Cagliari 20.3% 21.2%

xG - 1.47 : 0.83

Total 2.5 Over 39.8% - Under 60.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 52.2% / 26.6% / 21.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,508 / 1,461 Bologna / Cagliari

RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.39 market consensus · no value · model 21.2%

X 3.33 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 52.2%

Double chance

X2 1.89 market consensus · no value · model 47.8%

12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.4%

1X 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 78.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.47 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.14 market consensus · line only

2 +1 8.15 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.16 market consensus · no value · model 39.8%

Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 60.2%

Both teams to score

No 1.81 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.93 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.90 52.6%	1.98 50.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.87 53.5%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.46 28.9%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%
	4.30 23.3%	4.55 22.0%	4.20 23.8%	4.50 22.2%	4.70 21.3%	4.33 23.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.83 54.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.77 56.5%	1.81 55.3%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.94 51.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.94 51.6%	1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.93 51.8%	1.91 52.4%	1.83 54.6%	1.93 51.8%	1.83 54.6%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.08 92.6%	1.04 96.2%
Over 0.75	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.0	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.46 68.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.61 62.1%
Over 2.25	—	1.98 50.5%
Over 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Over 3.5	3.85 26.0%	—
Over 4.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 0.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.70 58.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 4.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Bologna

Founded 1909

Cagliari

Founded 1920

Match center

Bologna

LS Lukash Skorupski vr

NK Nikolo Kazale zsch

ZhM Zhoau Mariu pz

TD Teys Dallinga np

Cagliari

MF Mattia Felichi np

RI Riyad Idrissi zsch

LM Luka Matstsitelli pz

LP Leonardo Pavoletti np

DB Dzhennaro Borrelli np

Bologna Founded: 1909

Cagliari Founded: 1920

Match center

Bologna

L L W W L

25.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 0:2 AS Roma

19.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Bologna 0:2 Juventus

12.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 2:0 Lecce

05.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 2:1 Cremonese

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 0:2 Lazio

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

6 Points

Cagliari

W L W L L

27.04 16:30 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 3:2 Atalanta

17.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 0:3 Inter

11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 1:0 Cremonese

04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 1:2 Sassuolo

20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 0:1 Napoli

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBologna - Cagliari

Bologna

2 matches total

Cagliari

Bologna: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Cagliari: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Bologna 2:0 (19.10 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 19.10 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 4

Match history

19.10 13:00 UTC

Serie A

Bologna

2:0

Cagliari

29.10 17:30 UTC

Serie A

Bologna

2:0

Cagliari

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Bologna

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Cagliari

34 Games 34

14 Wins 9

6 Draws 9

14 Losses 16

42 Scored 36

41 Conceded 49

48 Points 36

98.85 Attacks 76.91

45.3 Dangerous attacks 31.65

0 Big chances 0

12.91 Shots on goal 9.71

3.82 Shots on target 3.24

Sootnoshenie statisticheskikh dannykh komand Bolonya Kalyari 34 Games 34 14 Wins 9 6 Draws 9 14 Losses 16 42 Scored 36 41 Conceded 49 48 Points 36 98.85 Attacks 76.91 45.3 Dangerous attacks 31.65 0 Big chances 0 12.91 Shots on goal 9.71 3.82 Udary v stvor 3.24 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.59 Uglovye 3.65 1.94 Offsaydy 1.56

Bolonya Kalyari 34 Games 34 14 Wins 9 6 Draws 9 14 Losses 16 42 Scored 36 41 Conceded 49 48 Points 36 98.85 Attacks 76.91 45.3 Dangerous attacks 31.65 0 Big chances 0 12.91 Shots on goal 9.71 3.82 Udary v stvor 3.24 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.59 Uglovye 3.65 1.94 Offsaydy 1.56 13.15 Foly 14.21 55.41 % vladeniya myachom 45.41 1.68 Warnings 2.18 0.18 Sendoffs 0.06 Nakazaniya Mishel Adopo 52' Eyvinn Khellann 68' Santyago Kastro 90+5'