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Serie A
Serie A Italy
18.01.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
18.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Bologna - Fiorentina

Italy Football
Bologna
Bologna
1 : 2
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bologna - Fiorentina January 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Line favourite market consensus: Bologna. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.48 / X 3.24 / 2 2.94
  • 1X2 market: Bologna 38.3% / X 29.4% / Fiorentina 32.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 38.3%
X 29.3%
2 32.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 49.6%
Under 2.5 50.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 18.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Bologna - Fiorentina

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.95 market consensus · line only
X 3.24 market consensus · line only
1 2.49 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.55 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.41 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.88 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.16 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.13 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.55 39.2%
X 3.31 30.2%
3.00 33.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.46 40.7% 2.51 39.8% 2.56 39.1% 2.40 41.7% 2.55 39.2% 2.52 39.7%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.32 30.1% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3%
2.84 35.2% 2.95 33.9% 3.09 32.4% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.15 46.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.20 45.5%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.63 61.4% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.58 63.3% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9%
Match center
Bologna
W D L L D
15.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 3:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
10.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:1 ComoComo
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:2 AtalantaAtalanta
04.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:3 InterInter
28.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:1 SassuoloSassuolo
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.8 Conceded
5 Points
Fiorentina
D D W L W
11.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:2 LazioLazio
04.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:0 CremoneseCremonese
27.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:1 ParmaParma
21.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 5:1 UdineseUdinese
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBologna - Fiorentina

Bologna
2 matches total
Fiorentina
Bologna: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Fiorentina: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Fiorentina 2:3 (18.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 18.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (26.10 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 4

Match history

26.10 17:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna
2:2
Fiorentina
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna
2:3
Fiorentina