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Serie A
Serie A Italy
02.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Cagliari - AC Milan

Italy Football
Cagliari
Cagliari
0 : 1
Finished
AC Milan
AC Milan

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - AC Milan January 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.90 / X 3.81 / 2 1.62
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 16.2% / X 25.0% / AC Milan 58.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 16.2%
X 25.0%
2 58.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 44.3%
Under 2.5 55.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 02.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Cagliari - AC Milan

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.62 market consensus · line only
X 3.81 market consensus · line only
1 5.91 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.14 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 2.33 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.14 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.70 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.09 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
6.00 16.7%
X 3.85 26.0%
1.64 61.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
6.00 16.7% 5.90 17.0% 6.04 16.6% 5.75 17.4% 6.00 16.7% 6.00 16.7%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.85 26.0% 3.94 25.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.85 26.0% 3.75 26.7%
1.60 62.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.68 59.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.73 57.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.73 57.8% 1.69 59.2%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.06 48.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.15 87.0% 1.15 87.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 2.25 44.4% 2.33 42.9% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.38 42.0%
Match center
Cagliari
W D L W L
27.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:1 TorinoTorino
21.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:2 PisaPisa
13.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 AtalantaAtalanta
07.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:0 AS RomaAS Roma
29.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 JuventusJuventus
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
AC Milan
W D W W W
28.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
14.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:2 SassuoloSassuolo
08.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:2 TorinoTorino
29.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 LazioLazio
23.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 InterInter
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - AC Milan

Cagliari
0 matches total
AC Milan
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history