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Serie A
Serie A Italy
23.04.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
23.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Cagliari - Fiorentina

Italy Football
Cagliari
Cagliari
1 : 2
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Fiorentina April 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.02 / X 3.12 / 2 2.66
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 32.2% / X 31.2% / Fiorentina 36.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.8%
1 32.2%
X 31.2%
2 36.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%
Over 2.5 41.3%
Under 2.5 58.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Cagliari - Fiorentina

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.66 market consensus · line only
X 3.12 market consensus · line only
1 3.02 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.43 market consensus · line only
12 1.41 market consensus · line only
1X 1.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.35 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.02 33.1%
X 3.12 32.1%
2.66 37.6%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.43 69.9%
home_away 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 2.35 42.6%
Under 2.5 1.65 60.6%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.07 48.3%
1.82 55.0%
Match center
Cagliari
L D L L W
12.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:3 InterInter
06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:0 Empoli
29.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:2 BolognaBologna
25.10 16:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:2 UdineseUdinese
20.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 3:2 TorinoTorino
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
4 Points
Fiorentina
D D W W W
13.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:0 ParmaParma
05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:2 AC MilanAC Milan
31.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:0 GenoaGenoa
27.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 5:1 AS RomaAS Roma
20.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 6:0 LecceLecce
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Fiorentina

Cagliari
0 matches total
Fiorentina
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history