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Serie A
Serie A Italy
16.02.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
16.02.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Cagliari - Lecce

Italy Football
Cagliari
Cagliari
0 : 2
Finished
Lecce
Lecce

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Lecce February 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cagliari.

Line favourite market consensus: Cagliari. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.31 / X 2.88 / 2 3.65
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 41.0% / X 32.9% / Lecce 26.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 64.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 41.1%
X 32.9%
2 26.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 35.6%
Under 2.5 64.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.02.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Cagliari - Lecce

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.65 market consensus · line only
X 2.89 market consensus · line only
1 2.32 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.62 market consensus · line only
12 1.40 market consensus · line only
1X 1.29 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.53 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.03 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.64 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.67 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.13 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.38 42.0%
X 2.97 33.7%
3.69 27.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.28 43.9% 2.35 42.6% 2.41 41.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1%
X 2.86 35.0% 2.90 34.5% 2.98 33.6% 2.80 35.7% 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5%
3.55 28.2% 3.65 27.4% 3.77 26.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.71 58.5%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.11 47.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.11 47.4% 2.23 44.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.64 61.0% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.35 74.1% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
Match center
Cagliari
L W W W L
09.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:2 AS RomaAS Roma
31.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 4:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
24.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
17.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:0 JuventusJuventus
12.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:3 GenoaGenoa
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Lecce
W L D L L
08.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 2:1 UdineseUdinese
01.02 11:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 TorinoTorino
24.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:0 LazioLazio
18.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
14.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 InterInter
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Lecce

Cagliari
1 matches total
Lecce
Cagliari: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lecce: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Cagliari 2:1 (19.09 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 19.09 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

19.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari
2:1
Lecce